As of: January 23, 2024, 8:12 p.m
By: Caspar Ibel
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A survey by the Ifo Institute sees Germany's economic growth at 0.6 percent for 2024.
This means that Germany remains the “problem child”.
Munich – The good news first: After the German economy shrank by 0.3 percent in 2023, experts expect growth for 2024.
However, the growth rate of 0.6 percent is rather low compared to the rest of the world.
At the global level, an average growth rate of 2.6 percent is expected.
This would correspond to slightly less than the rate of 2.7 in 2023. For the EU countries the forecast is 1.9 percent.
The figures come from a survey by the Munich Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy.
In it, 1,431 experts from 124 countries assessed the situation in their home country.
Ifo researcher Klaus Gründler says about Germany's forecast: "The experts expect a slight increase in economic output after the decline in 2023. But Germany is still lagging behind other countries."
How will Germany's economy develop?
Experts predict growth of 0.6 percent © IMAGO/Martin Wagner
Sweden and Great Britain still behind Germany
There are significant differences in European comparison.
Sweden is expected to grow by only 0.4 percent in 2024.
The forecast for Great Britain is also just 0.5 percent.
The experts are also cautious about Germany's neighboring countries Austria (0.9 percent) and Switzerland (1.3 percent).
On the other hand, the forecasts for Poland (2.8 percent), Ireland (2.8 percent) and Iceland (3.3 percent) are each above the average global growth rate.
With a forecast economic growth of 2.4 percent, the USA is ahead of Germany.
When looking at regions, West Africa is ahead with 4.4 percent and South-East Asia with 4.7 percent.
However, experts expect the weakest growth in Northern Europe (1.4 percent) and Western Europe (1.1 percent).
A look into the future sees higher growth for Germany
One reason for optimism is the medium and long-term forecast.
The experts expect increasing growth rates over the coming years.
The global economy is expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2025 and even by 3.3 percent in 2027.
The trend is also upwards for Germany.
Increasing growth rates are expected in 2025 (1.2 percent) and 2027 (1.5 percent).
This is not the case everywhere.
In the USA, the growth rate remained constant at 2.4 percent over the period.
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Assessments agree with other experts
The survey figures largely correspond to estimates from other institutes.
The World Bank had previously forecast global economic growth of 2.4 percent for 2024.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is more optimistic.
Accordingly, the global economy is growing by 2.7 percent.
Germany also sees the organization at 0.6 percent.