Five keys to interpreting the result of the New Hampshire primary elections

The New Hampshire primary has already begun.

At midnight from Monday to Tuesday (six in the morning in mainland Spain), fulfilling a tradition that every four years gives the town its 15 minutes of fame, the voters of Dixville Notch were the first to vote.

They have been doing this since 1960, but there are now only six inhabitants (four registered as Republicans and two independents) in that rural and remote place, located in the north of the State, near the border with Canada.

When Dixville Notch was most populated, it was tempting to analyze its outcome as a clue to what would happen throughout the day.

Now it's of little use, although Nikki Haley has taken the six votes and celebrated.

The keys to the day, which lasts all day Tuesday (until the early hours of this Wednesday, in mainland Spain time), lie elsewhere.

Participation, mainly of independents, is one of them, especially to decide if the Republican favorite, Donald Trump, knocks out the candidate, Nikki Haley, or the fight is extended.

But there are other aspects to pay attention to.

1. Participation

Snow and temperatures below 20 degrees led to low turnout in

last week's Iowa

caucuses .

Only 110,000 voters came to assemblies that also require more powerful dedication and motivation.

“Iowa didn't do a good job.

Voter turnout was very, very low,” New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu said these days.

Both he and the Secretary of State, David Scanlan, predict a large mobilization in this Tuesday's primaries, which could exceed 320,000 voters, 60% of the census, compared to the 18% who participated in Iowa.

“The entire country is looking at New Hampshire,” Sununu said this Monday at Haley's campaign closing event.

The primaries of this State are semi-open.

Voters who are registered as Republicans can only vote in Republican primaries and Democrats can only vote in theirs.

However, independents, which is how those who are not registered in either party are known, can also participate in one or the other party.

Polls indicate that in this group, which represents almost 40% of the census, Haley has an advantage, while among Republican affiliates Trump comfortably dominates.

How much each other mobilizes will have a lot of weight in the final result.

In New Hampshire, a certain movement of registered Democratic voters to become independent has been detected, although with a small weight.

In any State one can change parties respecting the deadlines.

2. DeSantis' legacy

The withdrawal of Ron DeSantis has marked the final stretch of the New Hampshire primary campaign.

By throwing in the towel before the vote, he leaves with the honor of having come at least second in Iowa, although his withdrawal at the first opportunity is quite humiliating.

In his surrender message, the Florida governor asked for Trump's support and disqualified Haley.

DeSantis only had a voting intention of 6% to 8% in New Hampshire, according to the polls, but if his followers listened to him, the effect would be devastating for Haley and would give Trump a landslide victory again, as in Iowa. Polls do not make it so clear that the transfer of the inheritance from DeSantis to Trump will be so clean.

3. The Trump-Haley difference

DeSantis's turnout and distribution of the orphan vote could make the difference in the outcome of the primary.

The latest polls point to a difference of 15 to 20 points in favor of Trump.

That is obviously the key data of the scrutiny.

For Trump, winning this Tuesday means almost as much as certifying his fast-track nomination, although in New Hampshire only 11 delegates are awarded.

Every candidate who has won Iowa and New Hampshire in the last half century in competitive primaries has taken the final victory in the primaries, and Trump has the dominance of a sitting president.

New Hampshire is the state in which Haley has the best prospects.

It has the support of the governor, can attract the support of independent voters and is, in general, a more moderate state than average.

Even the candidate's initials are the same as those of the State, which allows for effective poster designs.

If Nikki Haley doesn't win in New Hampshire, where is she going to win?

If she doesn't lose here by a narrow margin, where is she going to do better?

That is the question that will float in the air if the result is what the polls predict.

On the other hand, if the candidate surprises, the question will be another: can her rise be replicated in other states?

Nikki Haley, on Monday at a campaign event in Salem (New Hampshire). BRIAN SNYDER (REUTERS)

4. One president missing and another, unknown

In Iowa there were only votes in the Republican caucuses.

In New Hampshire, on the other hand, both Republicans and Democrats vote.

However, the Democratic Party does not award delegates to the winners in the state due to a dispute over the primary calendar.

This dispute is what also explains why the president, Joe Biden, did not register on time and his name does not appear on the ballots nor has he campaigned.

Citizens can vote for him by handwriting his name in a blank space left for this purpose on the ballots, but that complicates not only the voting, but also the counting.

Along with the campaign to vote by hand for Biden, there is another to write in that blank space “Ceasefire”, in reference to the Gaza war.

Obviously, those votes would be null.

There are 21 candidates on the Democratic ballot, including Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips;

self-help book writer Marianne Williamson;

the comedian Vermin Supreme, an eccentric activist known for wearing a rubber boot on his head as a hat, and an unknown

president

, but not by office, but by name: President R. Boddie.

None of them have a chance.

5. The way forward

Donald Trump recalled this Monday that the Republican primary race had started with more than a dozen candidates and that there were only two left.

“And I think one person will probably leave tomorrow,” he stressed, referring to a possible withdrawal of Haley.

Whether the former ambassador to the UN and former governor of South Carolina throws in the towel will largely depend on the result.

What lies ahead is not easy for her.

In the case of Republicans, the next stage is Nevada, but it is somewhat confusing.

There are primaries on February 6 (voting at the polls at a defined time, like conventional elections) and

caucuses

(somewhat informal assemblies of citizens where they vote for their candidates)

two days later.

Until 2020 there were only

caucuses

, but that year the assemblies and scrutiny were chaotic and the state legislature, in Democratic hands, approved moving to primaries in 2024. However, the Republican Party rebelled and not only continues to hold caucuses

,

but also concedes delegates depending on them.

Haley is on the primary ballots, but is not participating in the

caucuses.

And with Trump, who will take the delegates, the opposite happens: he is in the

caucuses,

but he is not on the ballots.

After Nevada, if there is still a battle, on February 24 there will be the primaries in South Carolina, Haley's home state, but in which the former president has solid support and is the clear favorite.

Democrats, on the other hand, vote in South Carolina on February 3.

Biden pushed for the Democratic primaries to be brought forward in that state, where he launched his campaign four years ago, arguing that he is more diverse and better represents the United States.

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