This is a somewhat counterintuitive scenario given that a large part of France experienced several days of very severe frost last week.
But the month of January could well have, in the end, an average temperature once again above average.
The situation is all the more surprising at first glance since, since January 10, even before temperatures sometimes below -10°C in the north of France, the values were already wintery, even below average.
But the (strong) rise in temperatures initiated since the start of this week should lead to the continuation of the long series of months warmer than the norm.
Forecaster Gaétan Heymes spoke on the subject on Monday.
Since the start of the year, 13 days have been “colder than normal”.
By the end of the month, temperatures are expected to be between 3°C and 4°C above average.
For the whole month to remain statistically colder than average, the difference over the last few days would have to be limited to +2.5°C, which should not be the case.
Over the first three weeks of January 2024, 13 days colder than normal.
The deviation from normal reached -1.2°C.
It would take +2.5°C over the last ten days for January 2024 to not be milder than normal.
We will probably be between +3 and +4°C.
pic.twitter.com/YAmQ4jGlvU
— Gaétan Heymes (@GaetanHeymes) January 22, 2024
In the coming days, temperatures sometimes a dozen degrees higher than the values expected in January are expected in the South.
The Pyrénées-Orientales department is particularly concerned.
It could be 25°C on Wednesday, which would be a record.
“Cold temperatures less cold than before and hot temperatures hotter”
Two elements must also be taken into account when calculating the average temperature.
On the one hand it is national, but the south of France was less exposed to freezing temperatures than the north of the country.
On the other hand, the deviation from the averages is less significant when it is cold than when it is mild.
Questioned last week by Le Parisien about the current temperature variations, Christine Berne, climatologist at Météo France, also agreed with this.
With climate change, “cold temperatures are less cold than before and hot temperatures are hotter,” she says.
January is therefore, despite appearances, well on its way to continuing the record series of months above seasonal temperatures.
This would be the 24th time in a row.