As of: January 24, 2024, 1:02 p.m
By: Stephan Israel, Till Hoppe
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Donald Trump at the NATO summit in Brussels 2018. © Eibner Europa/Imago
The EU has done a lot to increase its strategic autonomy in recent years.
But many experts doubt that it would be prepared for Donald Trump's return.
Those responsible in Brussels, Berlin and Paris suspect that difficult decisions will soon be made.
“We Europeans really have to take our fate into our own hands,” said Angela Merkel.
That was 2017 and Donald Trump had only been in office as US President for a short time.
The then Chancellor gave a speech in a Munich beer tent that received worldwide attention.
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It was a wake-up call, but have the words been followed by concrete actions?
Ahead of a possible comeback by Donald Trump, anxious questions are being asked again in Brussels at the headquarters of the EU and NATO.
Is Europe prepared this time?
There are the professional Europeans and optimists among the diplomats who see the glass at least as half full: Europe has strengthened resilience and learned the most important lessons, they argue.
The EU has filled the concept of strategic autonomy with content.
Companies have diversified supply chains and reduced dependencies, says a diplomat.
The EU now has the so-called strategic compass, an action plan to strengthen its own security and defense capability by 2030.
And with the Peace Facility, for the first time, a common pot of money to buy war material - from which Ukraine in particular benefits.
Through the defense agency, we jointly invest in research and development of the armaments of tomorrow.
Everything was unimaginable a few years ago.
NATO countries spend more on defense
A well-mooded Donald Trump could also welcome positive developments at NATO at the next summit and book them into his own account.
Not just three, but at least ten allies are now achieving the goal of spending at least two percent of economic output on defense, which NATO set itself in 2014 after Russia's annexation of Crimea.
But Trump wouldn't be Trump if, during a comeback, he didn't emphasize that the majority still doesn't meet the requirement or, like Germany, doesn't achieve it in the long term.
And in the EU too, it has so far been a step towards independence.
This can be seen again in the painstaking preparation of the naval operation in the Red Sea - after all, the most important lifeline for the European economy and exposed to attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels since the war over Gaza.
The USA and Great Britain have now been on site for a long time.
Or the difficulties of overcoming Hungary's veto and increasing the resources of the Peace Facility in order to be able to continue supporting Ukraine with military aid from the member states.
Defense should be the priority of the new commission
It is therefore not surprising that there are more and more critical voices who see the glass as “half empty” and as Europe being ill-equipped.
Since the first Republican primary in Iowa with Donald Trump's clear victory, the alarm bells have been ringing in Brussels and many capitals, says Siegfried Mureșan, influential deputy leader of the Christian Democrats in the European Parliament.
Unfortunately, after the election of Joe Biden, the Trump presidency was seen as a blip and precious time was subsequently lost.
The EU must now put words into action.
Security and defense must be a “strategic priority” of the next commission, demands the Romanian.
There must be a separate Commissioner for Security and Defense.
Priority must be given to enlargement and neighborhood policy in order to bring Ukraine, Moldova and the Balkan states closer to the EU as quickly as possible.
Ukraine deal at the expense of Europe?
The USA and China expert Reinhard Bütikofer warns against “waiting with sedate fatalism to see whether the snake will snap”.
The Europeans must now urgently think about a plan B, i.e. agree together to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to assert itself against Vladimir Putin.
Nathalie Loiseau, a liberal MEP from France and a close confidant of President Emmanuel Macron, calls for the continent to take on more responsibility, especially in its neighborhood.
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There are great concerns, especially with regard to Ukraine.
Trump likes to portray himself as a dealmaker and could pressure Kiev into peace negotiations - if necessary against the interests of Europe: “The situation in Ukraine is so terrible.
“We will make sure to solve them,” Trump recently promised.
How exactly, he left it open.
However, one thing seems clear: he is unlikely to continue the massive financial and arms aid to Kiev.
“We are giving away so much equipment that we have no ammunition for ourselves right now,” he claimed.
Difficult discussion about defensiveness
Trump probably has enough leverage.
As president, he could also question the US's support for NATO.
At the end of his first term in office, the 77-year-old is said to have threatened not to provide military aid in the event of an attack on Europe - and thus to ignore the alliance's obligation.
This was recently claimed by EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton during a panel discussion in the EU Parliament.
The US Congress has therefore already made provisions by law: in the future, no president may suspend or terminate NATO membership without a corresponding law from Congress or the approval of two-thirds of the Senate.
But the Europeans will hardly be able to avoid a difficult discussion about their ability to defend themselves.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz will urge his colleagues from other EU states at the special summit on February 1st to deliver more weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
At Berlin's insistence, the peace facility should be repurposed to promote joint arms procurement.
Breton also recently floated the idea of creating a 100 billion euro European defense fund.
In Berlin, such announcements are still met with caution.
But some people in the federal government also suspect that Germany may have to spend significantly more than two percent of its economic output on defense in the near future - possibly in conjunction with its European allies.
Trump could act as a catalyst for this discussion, which has so far only taken place behind the scenes.
IRA: EU companies also suffer from uncertainty
In the race for the green transformation of the economy, the cards are also likely to be reshuffled with Trump in the White House.
The ex-president has announced several times that he will reverse Joe Biden's industrial policy programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Trump sometimes described it as a “green scam” that would cost jobs and make energy expensive.
“Wind turbines rust, they rot, they kill the birds,” Trump said in a campaign video.
Instead, he wants to expand oil and gas exploration.
However, analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit expect broad resistance to Trump's plans.
“We expect the private sector to fight back,” one report said.
In addition, Republican-dominated areas of the country benefit particularly strongly from the investments initiated, so that many of Trump's party colleagues also support the measures.
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, senior advisor at the Bertelsmann Foundation, expects that the Republicans would still withdraw the IRA, at least in its current form - simply because it is a Democratic law.
Many European companies also benefited from the tax incentives, “for them this would mean great planning uncertainty,” warns the expert.
Trump wants to place a tariff ring around the US economy
However, the EU, after all the second largest trading partner of the United States, would have to expect punitive tariffs to be even greater than before.
Trump is already discussing the plan with his advisors to create a “ring around the American economy.”
His latest idea: a basic tariff of ten percent for everyone.
Most recently, the American average was 3.4 percent.
US business officials are already warning of a possible trade war that goes beyond the steel and aluminum tariffs from Trump's first term.
Raising tariffs and no longer concluding agreements means “damaging our own economy,” said Suzanne Clark, President of the American Chamber of Commerce, at the virtual annual meeting a few days ago.
Clüver Ashbrook therefore advises: “The EU should try to win additional allies such as the Mercosur states, India or Australia on strategic issues that affect European competitiveness.”
Unfortunately, she hasn't been particularly successful recently.
With Laurin Meyer