As of: January 25, 2024, 12:51 p.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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Russia has already threatened the nuclear option several times in the Ukraine war.
A paper confirms Moscow's considerations.
How high is the risk?
Moscow – Due to Russia's heavy losses in the Ukraine war, Moscow sees its nuclear weapons on the battlefield as increasingly important for deterrence and victory over NATO.
This emerges from a new report from the British research institute International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Moscow has repeatedly threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons.
In June 2023, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko made it clear that he could call Russian President Vladimir Putin at any time to get his consent to use such weapons.
Putin had previously announced that he wanted to station Russian “non-strategic nuclear weapons” (NSNW) in the neighboring country.
But these remained under Russia's control, according to the Kremlin chief.
How serious is Russian President Vladimir Putin about the nuclear threat?
© IMAGO/Kirill Iodas
Lavrov sees “less and less deterrent factors” - nuclear weapons as a “necessary” decision?
It was not the first, but also not the last threat of this kind. At the Russian Foreign Ministry's annual press conference last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov once again pointed out what he saw as the increasing risk of nuclear escalation.
Every day there is “more talk about a possible collision between the nuclear powers,” said Lavrov.
At the same time, there are “less and less deterrent factors, limiting factors”.
Ultimately, the USA “dismantled arms controls step by step” and created a “hostile” environment, which ultimately led to Russia withdrawing from the New START Treaty on nuclear arms control.
According to Russian political scientist Sergei A. Karaganov, the use of nuclear weapons could be a “difficult but necessary” decision for Moscow.
Karaganov writes this in a column in the Kremlin-affiliated journal
globalaffairs.ru
.
It is becoming increasingly clear that a clash with the West cannot be avoided, even if a victory is achieved in Ukraine.
The USA intends to plunge its partner countries into war.
In addition, most Western countries are "moving towards a new fascism and (so far) 'liberal' totalitarianism."
The “vector of the movement of the West” “clearly points to a slide into the Third World War”.
When in doubt, “use God’s weapon” – Moscow often threatens the West with nuclear weapons
This is exacerbated by “strategic parasitism”.
In “75 years of relative peace,” “people have forgotten the horrors of war and have even stopped fearing nuclear weapons.”
However, this fear must be revived, otherwise humanity would be “doomed”.
For Karaganov, the solution lies in moving “up the deterrence-escalation ladder quickly enough.”
If the West does not give in, it will be necessary to “attack a number of targets in a number of countries” to avoid a repeat of the “Ukrainian scenario”.
“Morally speaking,” this is “a terrible decision because we are using God’s weapon” and will harm ourselves, but ultimately save civilization.
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As stated in the
IISS
paper by William Alberque, Moscow believes that NSNW “plays an important role in deterring unwanted conflicts, shaping the battlefield for planned conflicts, limiting escalation within conflicts, and ensuring its own victory in conflicts.” “play every conflict”.
During the Ukraine war, Russia sent direct nuclear signals to the USA and NATO with its strategic and stationary nuclear forces.
The situation in Belarus has shown that the Kremlin sees “non-nuclear weapons as a useful tool to control its near abroad” and to put pressure on NATO.
Putin's red line - Is Moscow serious about its threats?
The development of Russian NSNW must therefore be closely monitored.
Finally, “to compensate for its lack of confidence in its conventional armed forces, the country has developed a number of short- and medium-range NSNW options,” which are expected to provide supposed advantages in crisis management.
The risk of their use is increased by Moscow's belief that "the West's willingness to use nuclear weapons or accept losses in conflicts is not credible."
Russian fears that the United States will arm Europe again with nuclear weapons are also part of these fears.
However, as another
IISS
paper shows, Russia's threshold for using nuclear options is still quite high.
The political scientist Lawrence Freedman writes there that Putin has consistently and restrictively defined “his nuclear red line”: the direct intervention of NATO troops in the war.
As long as these are respected, the danger is low, says Freedman.
Although she does not dismiss the concern about a nuclear escalation, Moscow is primarily concerned with creating a threatening backdrop.
In a joint statement with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in March 2023, Putin reiterated that “there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it must never be unleashed.”
In June 2023, he rejected the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons: "Firstly, we see no need to use [them], and secondly, considering this possibility contributes to lowering the threshold for the use of such weapons."
(tpn)