If the defeat of Kirchnerism and Macrism meant the
end of the rift
for many , reality today returns a half-confirmation.
It is true that
polarization as it was known
until last year
no longer exists.
There is neither a Cristina nor a Macri in the center of the ring.
But in parallel, from that same fight a new, deeper dichotomy germinated around the figure of
Javier Milei
.
With very radical levels of support and rejection.
Love and hate
.
The
new crack
began to attract the attention of some analysts in public opinion studies.
Synopsis
, one of the firms that has grown the most in the political market in recent years, presented a
recent report
to analyze the first month of libertarian management.
When they asked about the President's image, the two highest values came from extreme positions: 33.8% saw him as "very good" and 43.6% saw him as "very bad." A similar proportion occurred when they inquired about the "performance of the Government": 32.1% considered it "very good" and 42.8%, "very bad."
"The center lost power. Neither Together for Change nor Union for the Homeland no longer govern.
What we see is a deepening of polarization
, with the extremes as protagonists," contributes political scientist
Lucas Romero
, director of the consulting firm. .
Milei goes down and the unknowns open up
This and other surveys alert us to another central fact.
After starting in December with acceptable image numbers, in general with more support than rejection,
Milei suffered a downward correction in January
.
Her positive rating fell (about three points) and her negative rating rose (about seven).
The same polls, and even others from consultancies closer to Kirchnerism, agree that inflation
continues to be the central concern
for voters of all parties.
The question, then, arises by itself: how long will people tolerate such a high price increase, with wages rising at a lower rate?
It is the question that all politics asks.
"In March or April Milei has to show something, basically that the course is correct.
That the worst is behind us and that the levels of suffering are going to decrease
. If not, the climate will become difficult," warns an analyst who measures monthly the pulse of public opinion.
A signal, of course, should come from
inflation
.
After 25.5% in December, the January figure would be closer to 20%.
The problem is that in March/April prices would overheat again, among other things due to increases in service rates.
"Four months with number 2 ahead would be complicated
," the analyst completes.
The worst did not happen
As
Clarín
announced , Milei himself warns in private talks that "the worst has not happened."
And that precisely the March/April two-month period would bring the strongest impact of the adjustment.
Within the Casa Rosada there is talk of losses in purchasing power of around 40%.
The Government, through the President, warned that the situation could worsen if the measures provided for in the DNU and the State reform law being debated by Congress are not implemented.
The ruling party has already agreed to cancel more than 100 articles from the Omnibus project, but the discussion
remains bogged down in central issues such as withholdings and retirements
.
The libertarians' way of negotiating baffles circumstantial allies.
"
We are beginning to doubt whether they really want to remove the law or let everything fall
and accuse the opposition of not wanting to give up privileges and move forward with other tools," speculated a source who follows the debate from within.
"There are issues such as the mobility of pensions, which if they remain as they are now, may imply an adjustment that is good for the Government. But
for tax changes they need the law, no matter what
," another experienced source, who believes, detaches. that Milei is losing key weeks to implement its economic plan.