The increases in food, schools, prepaid bills, rates, recreation, etc.,
shocked
the pockets of Argentines.
The newly released data on economic activity in February from Marina Dal Poggetto's EcoGo consultancy mark a new decline, although with strong differences between sectors.
The agricultural sector
and services
achieved a contrasting improvement with the decline in industry, construction, fishing and mining.
For the consulting firm, February was the
fourth consecutive month of decline in economic activity
in a scheme characterized by a sharp drop in consumption with an impact on industry and construction due, also, to the loss of purchasing power of salaries and retirements.
Much of what was the expansion of the internal market thanks to the
"platita" plan
of former minister Sergio Massa falters after the devaluation and the green light appears on the hand of the harvest, which recovers in quantities produced, after last year's severe drought.
The face in the adjustment of consumption contrasts with the
strong rise in Argentine bonds
.
A recovery of magnitude unthinkable a few months ago.
The largest market dollar bonds.
AL30 and GD30
rise more than 16% in the month,
accumulating increases of 40% 45% in one year.
In the language of market operators, this is called a
"financial holiday"
in the heat of the recovery of assets that had very low prices and that are now in a race that, for many experts, seems to have no end, although politics began to open question marks.
The good financial moment corresponds to the decline and stability of free dollars.
The counted dollar with settlement at $1,101 or the blue at $1,020 mark a gap of less than 30% with the wholesale dollar that was not foreseen by any analyst 60 days ago.
The
swing of the dollar
changed the scenario to the point that the opinion is growing that Minister
Luis Caputo
, as he has been saying,
will not devalue in April.
The official dollar rises at a rate of 2% per month, clearly below inflation, but those who claim that it is behind will probably have to adapt to this new reality.
The background of an economy with
fewer pesos available
due to the strong liquefaction of income generated by the December devaluation and the subsequent inflationary jump could be a backward dollar, which is the reinsurance of any minister in the attempt to contain inflation.
In fact, EcoGo recorded that in the third week of March, the
food and beverage basket had an increase of 1.6%
, lower than the previous ones, and projected inflation for the month at
13.1%.
The export sector draws attention to the risks of
falling behind the dollar again
and maintains that the official value is already at the real level prior to the December devaluation.
From Economy they respond that they do not see the delay and they retort that in November there was a fiscal deficit and frozen prices and that now the framework is one of fiscal balance and a strong recomposition of relative prices.
Will the official dollar adjustment at 2% monthly continue for another 90 days?
Every day there are more bets in favor supported by the presumption that
President Javier Milei
will continue with lowering inflation as his primary objective.
If Caputo's bet is on the fixed dollar, perhaps it is also on lowering the interest rate in the attempt to revive credit for the private sector.
The reference rate at 80% is lower than inflation, but it is high compared to the variation of the dollar, which is presented as a key to boosting ailing consumption.
A discussion these days between the government and economists is how they foresee the exit from the recession that is being felt strongly.
for me
Minister Caputo, the rebound will be felt in the second part of the year (in the Economy they resist talking about "second semester" to avoid resembling the forecasts of President Mauricio Macri), and it will be in the shape of a
"V",
that is, a quick exit.
Businessmen linked to consumption are more skeptical and assign it the shape of a
"pipe"
from the sports brand Nike.
A much slower and more leisurely exit.
The political result of the government in Congress weighs heavily in this forecast.
Businessmen and bankers say that capital will not reach Argentina if the President does not achieve some laws in Congress as a result of agreements that provide
political sustainability to the administration
.
The presidential logic seems to go in another direction, supported by surveys in which people acknowledge that they are economically bad, but believe that they will be better off in the future.
The drop in retirements, salaries and general income of the population in the first 100 days of Milei is very strong.
However, there are political scientists and economists who believe that the horizon that the President has to demonstrate results of the strong adjustment implemented is extended for another 100 days.
Quite a bet.