After Iran's attack on Israel, the world is waiting for Netanyahu's reaction. Will the conflict escalate completely? A Middle East expert sees previous dogmas wavering.
Tel Aviv/Tehran – With Iran's attack on Israel, the Middle East conflict has taken a new, dangerous turn. Israel wants to strike back against Iran - in what form is currently uncertain. Dr. Andreas Böhm from the University of St. Gallen sees the previous laws of the decades-long proxy war in the Middle East now invalid, as he explained in an interview with
fr.de
from
IPPEN.MEDIA
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Mr. Böhm, Iran's attack on Israel with over 300 drones, rockets and cruise missiles was unique in history. How has this changed the situation in the region?
There is now a new situation, the old rules of the game no longer apply. Before Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, there was a proxy war between Israel and the so-called "Axis of Resistance" supported by Iran - i.e. the militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria. The conflict followed certain rules, even if both sides tried to expand them to their advantage. With the attack on the consulate in Damascus, Israel attacked territory for the first time that belongs to Iran under international law.
What triggered that?
Iran had put up with a lot so far, but was now forced to react. In the interests of effective deterrence, Iran had to demonstrate strength on the one hand, but on the other hand was not allowed to give Israel any reasons to strike back directly. The Iranian leadership actually has no interest in being drawn into a larger regional conflict.
Iran sent two signals.”
Middle East expert Dr. Andreas Böhm
Does that mean the Iranian missiles on Israel were symbolic?
To a good extent. Iran has sent two signals. On the one hand, images of the attack went around the whole world: for example, of Iranian missiles over the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, a shrine in the Islamic world. Iran has thus positioned itself as a true supporter of the Palestinian cause. On the other hand, 99 percent of Iranian missiles were intercepted. There was hardly any damage. But what is remarkable is that a rocket hit the very Israeli air base from which the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus originated. This was the second sign from Iran to Israel. It says: “Be careful, we can hit you harder.”
Agreements before Iran's attack on Israel? “It was played across gangs”
It sounds as if the Iran attack was precisely calculated. Do you think there were indirect agreements beforehand?
Yes, there have been very strong indirect diplomatic actions since the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus two weeks ago. It was played over gangs. The US and Iran have assured each other that they have no interest in a major regional conflict. In addition, it took a relatively long time for the drones shot down by Iran to arrive in Israel - there was enough time to activate the defenses and send aircraft off.
A counter-reaction from Israel is now expected almost every hour. What do you expect from Netanyahu?
It is clear that Israel will react. Netanyahu has no other choice. But what exactly will happen is relatively incalculable. As I said, there are no hard and fast rules anymore. The US has made it clear to Netanyahu that Israel should refrain from further escalation, which puts him in a major dilemma. On the one hand, he needs the support of the USA, but on the other hand, he would now have the opportunity to put a decisive damper on Iran and the “Axis of Resistance”. The hardliners are now calling for a strike against Iran's nuclear program. Netanyahu is therefore faced with the tightrope act of striking back, but in such a way that no new regional conflict arises.
What is Netanyahu planning? Attack from Iran causes dilemma in Israel
So what do you think Netanyahu will do?
I suspect that he will not openly disavow the US and will therefore be more likely to attack Iranian positions in Syria and Lebanon. And not Iran directly.
Jordan took part in repelling Iranian missiles on Saturday - alongside the USA and Israel. It is considered historic that an Arab state is supporting Israel militarily. Is there a chance of an alliance of Arab states in the region alongside Israel?
That is the dream of some strategists in Washington and Tel Aviv. But all of these states – the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt – face an enormous dilemma. On the one hand, the political leadership sees the situation realistically and is interested in sensible relations with Israel. On the other hand, the Palestinian question is the main topic among the population. Television there broadcasts images from Gaza 24 hours a day, and public opinion is very clear. In Arab countries, the war in Gaza is an incredibly emotional issue that the respective political leaderships cannot simply ignore. These countries pursue their own interests - part of which is resolving the Palestinian issue - and do not want to be bound by such an alliance.
Further escalation in the Middle East after Iran's attack? “There are some indications of that.”
Do you see an escalation of the conflict in the region?
This doesn't necessarily have to happen, but structurally there are some indications that it will. There is potential for escalation, especially between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will be very, very difficult to reduce. We tend to see the individual conflicts in the region in isolation, but they are interconnected and therefore an overarching solution is needed. The question is where this should come from. There will probably only be a solution if both the USA and China get very involved. Because only China can give Iran - like the USA Israel - security guarantees, but also hold it accountable. That would be necessary to break the dynamic.
The interview was conducted by Stephanie Munk.