Deter without escalation, such as sip and puff

Restoring deterrence and preventing war escalation at the same time is like huffing and sipping. An impossible task for anyone, be it Iran with its massive air attack or Israel with the response it has announced. Everyone wants to strike last and then consider the deterrent balance restored and the fight over, but they know that they contribute to continuing it and thereby increasing the risk of regional war. Therefore, the request of Israel's allies for the aggression to go unanswered is illusory, despite the fact that 99% of the devices with explosive charges, and not exactly symbolic ones, were intercepted and only one victim was reported. precisely Palestinian, a seriously injured girl belonging to a Bedouin family evicted from their home by the Israeli authorities.

Those who helped Netanyahu intercept the missiles, and avoid a massacre in inhabited areas, consider that deterrence has been reestablished with the brilliant success of the anti-aircraft defense, and advise against any hasty and excessive reaction that would set the region on fire and inflate the price of gas. and oil.

These considerations are not shared by the most extreme Israeli ministers, who do not conceive of deterrence without punishment or revenge and do not want to give up anything: an immediate and forceful response to Iran, but neither do they enter Rafah, nor continue to tighten the siege on the Palestinians of the West Bank. Keeping the war mobilization alive becomes fundamental for the political survival of Netanyahu and his Government, although it will be increasingly difficult without some substantial concession to his allies, either in Gaza, or in his war fervor against Iran.

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That news is not good for Gazans, because Rafah offers an easy deterrent response without escalation abroad. Tehran can wait to get what it deserves. It is enough for Israel to announce its ineluctability, as in reality it has already done. One way or another, it will arrive and it will be forceful. The Iranian nuclear program will likely provide the perfect target at the right time to cut things short, before the bomb is ready for use.

Ultimately, the greatest Israeli fear – also Saudi and the Sunni Arab countries – is that Iran will come to possess nuclear weapons, with the aggressive cover it provides, as has been proven with Russia in Ukraine.

To defend itself so successfully from Iranian air aggression, Israel has needed a broad coalition with the United States, France and the United Kingdom (all possessors of the nuclear weapon and military core of NATO), in addition to the stealthy participation of Jordan, Saudi Saudi and Emirates. Nothing would reinforce this entire heterogeneous ensemble as much as the end of the Gaza war and the reopening of the peace process with the Palestinians. The deterrent capacity of a stable Arab and Atlantic alliance would surpass in effectiveness any Israeli military response against Iran and would be the strongest insurance policy against spillover and regional war. It would deter without escalating.

Even in the worst circumstances, some path always opens up that deviates from the warrior's path, but you have to know how to find it and take advantage of it.

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