A Beijing expert warns about Russia's future. Four factors could force Putin to defeat. The war could have far-reaching consequences.
Beijing – The Ukraine war has far-reaching consequences for both Ukraine and Russia, with both sides fighting with high losses. A Russian victory could have even greater consequences for Ukraine. However, four factors should make an eventual defeat for Russia in the Ukraine war unavoidable. The critical voice writing this comes from an unexpected neighbor of Russia: China. What does this mean for Russia?
Feng Yujun, vice dean of the Institute of International Studies at Peking University, described the four factors in an op-ed in
The Economist
. Even the nuclear weapons that Russia has repeatedly threatened to use are no guarantee of victory, according to Feng. He cited U.S. operations in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Korea as reasons why the U.S. withdrew despite having nuclear weapons, implying that the same mental hurdle was intact for Russia. So what are these points that should ensure victory for Ukraine?
Crucial to Ukraine's victory: resistance, cohesion and international aid to Ukraine
The first point is the resistance and national cohesion of Ukrainians, “which has been exceptional so far.” Secondly, international support for Ukraine is crucial. Feng noted that while the support did not meet Ukraine's expectations, it remained "broad-based."
According to data from the
Kiel Institute for the World Economy,
the total amount of donations, both overall and related to the military, increased almost linearly in the last two years. So spending has not fallen as much as politicians sometimes say. Such a trend can only be discovered in the USA, largely due to one reason: the blocked aid area in the US Congress.
Ukraine has an advantage against Russia through modern warfare and information
The third factor, according to Feng, is modern warfare, with which Russia cannot really keep up. There have been repeated reports of upgraded Soviet military equipment used by Russia in the Ukraine War. According to Feng, this is due to the “dramatic deindustrialization” after the fall of the Soviet Union, from which Russia never fully recovered.
The final factor is information, where Putin is also limited by his “information cocoon” and ineffective intelligence services. This means that mistakes cannot be corrected so quickly, while Ukraine has the opportunity to do so through “more flexible and effective” organization.
Gloomy future of isolation for Russia – international opportunities for Ukraine
Feng also painted a picture of broader consequences beyond the question of victory and defeat. NATO has woken up to the threat from Russia and the UN Security Council is also thinking more seriously about possible reforms that would prevent a blockade. Feng gave Ukraine more options, for example to join NATO or the EU, while he diagnosed Russia with “international isolation”.
According to the professor, former allies are also slowly turning away from Russia because victory seems unlikely. Accordingly, China has also distanced itself from Russia and has returned to a policy of “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties”. China did not side with either side and has already held two rounds of negotiations since the start of the war.
China still seems to be on Russia's side - Needs change in Russia to end the war
A day before the professor's guest article, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing. According to
Radio China International,
the friendship and cooperation between the two states
was emphasized there .
According to
Newsweek
, the two ministers discussed a “new security architecture in Eurasia.”
A few days ago, according to the news site The Independent,
the US secret service also reported
on Chinese technology deliveries to Russia, where they were presumably used to produce war equipment. All in all, there are no clear signs against cohesion with Russia. However, due to secondary sanctions recently introduced by the US,
some Chinese banks and companies are exercising caution when dealing with Russia, according to
Newsweek .
At the same time, according to Feng, Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing a number of domestic political tensions, for example due to the recent terrorist attack in Moscow, the rebellion of Wagner mercenaries and other militias and opposition figures. However, all of these factors do not have to mean that Russian attacks will end: “Without a fundamental change in Russia’s political system and ideology, the conflict could be frozen,” Feng wrote. In the same way, “after a breather” one can attack again.
(lismah)