The next week will be full of macroeconomic data, with some stages particularly awaited by the markets: the European and US manufacturing PMI indices on Tuesday, the US domestic product on Thursday and inflation again from the United States on Friday. All indices on which the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will base themselves to decide the rate cut calendar.
The week actually begins with a quiet day on the macroeconomic data front: in fact, among the relevant indices on Monday, the one on European consumer confidence for April is only expected in the afternoon. Tuesday is the time for the PMI (Purchasing managers index) indices: in the morning the French, German, European and UK indices will arrive and, in the afternoon with markets in the Old Continent still open, the American manufacturing PMI.
On Wednesday, however, it will be the turn of Italian business and consumer confidence, but above all of Germany's Ifo index. The following day analysts and operators await the Gfk report on German consumer confidence, followed by the ECB's monthly bulletin. In the very early afternoon, the preliminary US gross domestic product for the first quarter is on the agenda, with expectations indicating growth of 2.3%, up to the estimate of the Atlanta Fed model which comes close to an increase of three percentage points.
The Japanese Bank's decision on interest rates is expected in the very early Italian morning on Friday, but the week will effectively end with US inflation in the very early afternoon. In particular, the PCE deflator for March will be published, i.e. the Fed's 'preferred' inflation measure. A figure which however "should not offer major surprises, given that an approximation can be calculated on the basis of data on inflation and retail prices production that have already been published", say MPS market strategy analysts.
The season of US quarterly reports also continues, with the key day being Thursday with the closed market accounts of Alphabet and Microsoft. The season in Europe is also intensifying, especially with the big names in the oil sector, while on Thursday it will be the turn of BNP Paribas, the first major bank from the Old Continent to communicate its quarterly results.