Cash flow difficulties, forced transfers, falling wages… The renunciation of Mediapro, with the upcoming closure of the Téléfoot channel, will have serious consequences for French clubs, according to economist Christophe Lepetit.
Did Mediapro negotiate its exit well?
CHRISTOPHE LEPETIT.
Yes, compared to their commitment to bring 800 million euros per season for four years, we can consider that they are not doing so badly.
They were to bring 3.2 billion in total and, finally, will have brought only the first deadline of August (approximately 172 million) and the 100 million allowances mentioned.
They are doing all the better because, somewhere, if this negotiated exit is confirmed, they protect themselves against a risk of legal action by the LFP.
Without predicting what could have happened, there would certainly have been material to attack on the LFP side if Mediapro had left without paying compensation.
How will the LFP, which will have received from Mediapro only 100 million out of the 325 of the two unpaid installments, will it be able to meet the needs of the clubs?
Over the first six months of the season, the LFP actually gets away with a cash balance to its disadvantage.
The LFP faced the first unpaid installment in October by the loan, which it must repay.
She can do the same for the one in December.
The sum of 100 million paid to Mediapro will reduce the repayment constraint.
If Canal + is chosen, there is also a question of an extension from the channel ...
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What could be negotiated between the various stakeholders is that Canal +, if applicable, agrees to an additional advance, which would be recovered over the following years.
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If Canal + recovers the rights for an amount approaching 590 million euros as expected, at what level does Ligue 1 find itself in the matter?
Canal + would add 260 million to acquire the exclusivity of Ligue 1 (
Editor's note: the channel already pays 330 million for two matches per day
), plus a possible bonus.
The amount of rights for Ligue 1 would therefore increase from 1.2 billion to 590 million plus the 50 million of the lot of Free, or 640 million euros.
Which amounts to a halving of TV rights.
We find ourselves just below the amount for the period 2016-2020 (
Editor's note: 726 million
).
In retrospect, it's a shame, because when the League marketed its rights in 2018, the tension was very high in the market.
In this context, we could have reached 800, 900 million, or even 1 billion at constant broadcasters, with perhaps Canal and beIN.
However, two years later, we are facing a regression.
This will have a very strong impact on the competitiveness of our clubs.
The Ligue 1 will permanently register as the first of the championships of the 2nd division of European football ...
How will this manifest itself?
Obviously, for all clubs, large and small, this will generate cash flow difficulties.
Depending on what will be negotiated with the following broadcaster (s) in terms of advances, the difficulties will be more or less important.
If the shock is absorbed and therefore shifted in time, the clubs will have time to adjust their payroll, by not extending players at the end of their contract, by renegotiating lower remuneration and then by making transfers.
In the Covid context, clubs will be more than ever in the position of having to sell players next summer.
They will look to sell very quickly, whereas in a year of great international competition, buyers shop later.
It's going to be a pretty complicated time for our clubs to manage.
Will the effects be felt from the winter transfer window?
We will be looking to sell in January.
There will be an overabundance of offers, which is not favorable to the setting of tariffs, which is more in a market traditionally called adjustment.
Not a lot will happen in January.
The applicants are not legion, the other championships being also impacted by the crisis.
In September-October, there was already a marked slowdown in transfer operations.
England, Germany or Spain buy less.
