Gradually reopening Wuhan schools and businesses in April will delay the eventual second peak of infection from Covid-19, moving it to October and making it more manageable for the health system. This is indicated by a study published in The Lancet Public Health by a British research team led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
"The unprecedented measures taken by the city of Wuhan to reduce social contacts in schools and jobs has helped control the epidemic," explains the study's first author, Kiesha Prem. "On the other hand, the city must now avoid removing the restrictions prematurely, because a second peak of cases could occur. If the restrictions are gradually phased out - continues the expert - this will probably delay and break the peak curve ".
The mathematical model quantified the impact of the closure of schools and companies on the spread of the epidemic in Wuhan, evaluating the ways in which people of different ages have contact with others in different places. The results show that the effects of social distancing vary by age group: the greatest reduction in infections occurs in school-age young people and the elderly, while the effects are more modest in adults of working age. Once the restrictions are lifted, the number of contagion cases is expected to grow. The gradual reopening of jobs from early April could reduce the median of new cases by 24% by the end of 2020, delaying the second peak in October. This timing applies to Wuhan and not to other countries, "because the population structure and social interactions are different," explains researcher Yang Liu. "But we believe one concept is valid for everyone: we must carefully consider how to remove restrictions to avoid new waves of infection when students and workers return to their daily routine. If these waves arrive too quickly, they can overwhelm health systems."
