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Christmas with the coronavirus: the higher the number of infections, the greater the risk of infection
Photo: MiS / imago images
Strict rules for personal contacts have been in place in Germany since the beginning of November: members of two households and a maximum of ten people are allowed to meet in public.
In detail, the rules differ from state to state.
However, celebrations in apartments are considered "unacceptable" everywhere.
That should change for Christmas and New Year's Eve.
From December 23 to January 1, meetings of a maximum of ten people should be possible, even if they come from different households.
Children up to the age of 14 are not included in the count.
This is what it says in a resolution proposal from the heads of government of the federal states, which they will discuss with Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday.
The virus doesn't care about Christmas
The desire for a Christmas party that is as normal as possible is understandable, but the proposed relaxation is associated with risks.
Because the coronavirus doesn't care if it's Christmas.
It remains just as contagious as it was before and can be especially, but not exclusively, dangerous to older family members.
A few hours before the resolution proposal from the country chiefs became known, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned against the relaxation of corona restrictions over Christmas - especially when authorities do not have the infection process fully under control.
"If people get infected with each other and if a country does not have the necessary infrastructure to pursue cases and isolate contacts and quarantine, then a relaxation will lead to more contagion," said WHO emergency aid coordinator Mike Ryan on Monday evening in Geneva .
Outbreak in Germany continues out of control
However, it is still uncertain whether the number of infections in Germany will be so low in a month that chains of infection can be traced again.
The heads of government of the federal states want to lower the numbers significantly by introducing stricter contact restrictions at the beginning of December, before loosening them afterwards.
Private get-togethers should then only be allowed between members of two households and a maximum of five people - here too, children are excluded.
The country leaders also call on people to quarantine themselves for several days before Christmas.
Since the partial shutdown in early November, the number of new infections has stabilized.
In some districts, the 7-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants is again below 50 or even below 35. In regions where the initial values were very high, such as around Munich or Frankfurt, 7-day incidences of more than 200 cases registered per 100,000 inhabitants (see graphs).
Before the partial shutdown, the numbers in the regions were sometimes over 300. This confirms that the later countermeasures are taken, the longer it will take for the numbers to fall again.
The rise in Covid 19 cases in intensive care units is also only slowly slowing down.
These numbers always follow the development of the number of infections with a delay of a few weeks.
It takes time for infected people to become so seriously ill that they require intensive care;
and it takes time before they are healthy enough to leave the intensive care unit - or die.
There is no formula for a safe festival
The problem with Christmas and New Years Eve is that there is no one-size-fits-all formula for which easing is acceptable under which circumstances.
"There's just a higher and lower risk that the situation will get better or worse," said WHO official Ryan.
Governments would have to weigh the risks of the virus spreading further with the economic and social risks of maintaining restrictions.
If the restrictions are too strict, there is a risk of great frustration, corona fatigue and possibly resistance to the measures.
At the same time, it is conceivable that the population no longer perceives contact restrictions outside of this as understandable due to suddenly relaxed measures over Christmas.
According to the motto: celebrations were allowed over Christmas and New Year's Eve, so why not also on my birthday?
Interiors are super spreader places
How great the influence of private celebrations in Germany is on the spread of the coronavirus cannot be quantified in detail.
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the health authorities were able to document where the infections took place in just about a quarter of the infections registered in Germany by mid-July.
By far the greatest number of infections originated in private households, followed by old people's and nursing homes.
However, in these environments it is also particularly easy to trace infection chains because contact persons are known.
Public places are therefore likely to be underrepresented in the statistics.
A simulation study from the USA, based on cell phone data from 98 million Americans, comes to the conclusion that the majority of all corona infections take place in places, mostly indoors, where larger groups of people come together over long periods of time in a confined space.
So where there are many, lasting contacts.
Christmas and New Year celebrations fit exactly into this scheme.
The risk is increased if one assumes that people will come together several times in different constellations.
Each of these situations again offers the potential for contagion.
The Spanish newspaper »El País« illustrated the risk of corona infection indoors some time ago (here).
The Thanksgiving Trap
The fact that holidays have the potential to fuel the corona pandemic has recently also been shown in Canada.
The people there celebrated Thanksgiving with their families and friends on October 12th.
At the time, the number of infections in the country was already on an upward trend.
However, this was reinforced by the one feast day alone (see graphic below).
"The reason we're pretty sure that Thanksgiving has increased the number of infections is that we saw the highest number of cases recorded so far in the two weeks that followed," University of Toronto epidemiologist Laura Rosella told Time Magazine «.
That fits with the incubation period, after which people showed symptoms and were reported.
Experts in the USA now fear that the Thanksgiving festival there last weekend could have a similar effect.
Since the number of infections in the United States was already very high, the holiday could push the numbers up to an even greater extent than in Canada.
According to a risk assessment tool developed by researchers, the risk of encountering a corona positive at a Thanksgiving party in the United States with only ten attendees was close to 100 percent in some regions of the country.
Weighing personal risk
The values cannot be transferred to Germany, but a connection remains: the larger the meetings are and the more widespread the virus is in the whereabouts of the participants, the higher the risk of infection.
The extent to which family celebrations at Christmas will affect the number of infections in this country depends not only on the number of participants but also largely on how widespread the virus is in the population at the end of December and whether it will be possible to stop chains of infection that started at Christmas.
The current weekly average of around 18,000 new infections per day should in any case not be a good basis for a celebration marathon at the end of the year.
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With material from dpa
