The epidemic is starting again.
“Hospitalizations have been on the rise for 5 to 7 days
,” explains Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier.
This increase is undoubtedly the result of the Christmas holidays.
Which is a little worrying, because in the days to come we should also see the consequences of December 31 and the start of the school year.
It therefore seems unlikely that the dynamic will reverse. ”
If the increase remains measured, the November containment did not allow the contamination to drop sufficiently to release the pressure on the hospital system.
"
At this rate, we will reach 3,000 people in intensive care in mid-February
», Warns Mircea Sofonea.
The reproduction rate (which must remain below 1 to reduce the epidemic) is currently 1.1.
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“
In addition to this very complicated situation, there is the unknown of the English variant,”
explains Mircea Sofonea.
If we do not manage to limit quickly
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