Let's be optimistic and assume that over the next 20 years, the economy will continue to run as smoothly as in the past decade. With reliable growth and reasonably secure employment for the majority of the working population. Granted, that's really optimistic.
But even in these sunny conditions, the shadows over one part of society will continue to grow. As the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has calculated, even one in five pensioners would be affected by old-age poverty: 21.6 percent could be according to these calculations. Today it is 16.8 percent.
Of course you have to be careful with such numbers. Anyone who calculates two decades into the future must make many assumptions that he can not verify, but which have a strong impact on the calculation result. If, for example, the economy develops worse, the number of poor seniors will be even higher: A weak economy leads to more unemployed people, who can do less for old age.
Some groups are harder than others
Nevertheless, the current DIW study, commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation, provides orientation for current debates. After all, the Grand Coalition is currently fighting over the basic security, which should prevent greater poverty in the future. Therefore, the authors of the study under constant assumptions - see economic cycle - calculated how different models of the fuse impact.
And it shows which groups of workers are particularly at risk of poverty. It becomes clear: In old age, it will be difficult for low-skilled people and single people to live alone - with single women getting away worse than men. In the following chart, this is shown by the basic coverage rate, ie the proportion of people in the respective group who are likely to receive basic insurance because their pension is insufficient. In the two groups, according to the DIW forecast, the rate will double. The prospects for people with a migrant background and those who have lived through a long period of unemployment are also bleak.
A distinction is also made here between East and West German employees. At present, the East is better off in this respect, for the most part a consequence of the higher female employment already in GDR times, but also after the fall of the Wall. Later, however, the high level of unemployment suffered by the Easterners for so long is likely to affect pensions. This is bitter, especially in regions that often feel disconnected anyway.
The Grand Coalition already has the basic problem in view - but disagrees on how to proceed with it. The authors have therefore calculated various suggestions. The most important are:
- The basic pension according to the plans of the coalition agreement : Anyone who has paid at least 35 years into the social security funds should receive a supplement of 10 percent in the case of basic need, but only after his neediness has been examined. The DIW estimates that the cost of this measure is "moderate". However, the effect is also limited, because "less than a third of persons with a basic claim to the required 35 years of insurance" comes, says study author Johannes Geyer.
- The basic pension according to the proposal of Labor Minister Hubertus Heil : The SPD man provides for an appreciation of low contributions to the pension insurance, as they make low-income earners inevitably. It should give this to people with at least 35 years of insurance, but in most cases without a means test. The risk of poverty could thus be significantly reduced, according to the prognosis of economists. However, many people would benefit, the net income according to the calculations above the basic security threshold - that makes things expensive. Admittedly, the circle of beneficiaries would be larger because the need is not examined and only formal criteria have to be met. But because here too 35 contribution years are required, many people were left out who needed it most. (An analysis of the SPD ground rent can be read here.)
Christof Schiller, who is responsible for the study at the Bertelsmann Foundation, therefore proposes two additions to Heils Grundrente:
- A simple income test would ensure that only low-income households are taken into account; In order to keep the administrative burden low, one should do without a wealth test.
- Greater flexibility in insurance periods could, above all, help pensioners whose working lives have been interrupted by long periods of unemployment.
So it is possible to help at a lower cost and still more targeted. If all assumptions are correct.