According to calculations by the Ifo Institute, Germany will achieve the world's highest surplus in its current account for the fourth consecutive year - despite the slump in exports.
The surplus will be in 2019 converted to $ 276 billion, said Ifo economist Christian Grimme. By far the second place is followed by Japan with $ 188 billion before China with $ 182 billion.
On the other hand, according to the Ifo calculations, the United States will record the world's largest current account deficit of around $ 480 billion this year, despite punitive tariffs on many Chinese products.
"That's because the trade conflict weighs on both the export and the import side, so the effects on current account balances are likely to be quite low this year," said Grimme.
Criticism of strong surplus
Roughly speaking, the current account surplus implies that Germany produces and provides much more goods than it consumes. The large German surplus comes about mainly because far more goods and services are sold abroad than from there. Although exports of goods increased by only one percent in the first seven months of this year, the trade surplus came to almost € 139 billion.
Due to its surpluses, Germany has been criticized internationally for years, especially by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and US President Donald Trump. The latter sees his country at a disadvantage in trade and therefore threatens to impose punitive tariffs on European cars.
Many economists also see the surplus critical. "Germany builds up more financial demands on foreign countries than foreign countries do over Germany," said Grimme.
In addition to cars, equipment and chemicals, loans for their financing abroad are also delivered. "Germany is therefore also world champion in the export of capital," said Grimme. This can be a problem when it comes to defaults - for example, when the foreign countries are no longer able to service the interest burden.
