At first glance, it seems paradoxical: the economy in Germany has again grown steadily over the past year, many new jobs have been created and wages have increased significantly - and yet the proportion of people at risk of income poverty has risen. The at-risk-of-poverty rate was 15.8 percent in 2017, 0.1 percentage points higher than in the previous year.
This is based on the latest data from the Microcensus 2017, which were evaluated by Eric Seils and Jutta Höhne from the Institute for Economic and Social Sciences (WSI) of the union-friendly Hans Böckler Foundation. The evaluation is available to SPIEGEL.
Officially, the Federal Statistical Office has not yet communicated the poverty rate for 2017 - but it is already in a publication of the official statisticians on the population with a migration background. According to WSI, the quota of 15.8 percent is "a new high since the beginning of the time series in 1996".
Are the poverty problems in Germany getting worse, despite the brilliant situation on the job market? Although the record suggests this, on closer examination, the finding is far from clear: the risk of poverty has risen exclusively in the immigrant group - and that's no surprise. Because this group has grown significantly due to the strong influx of refugees in the years 2015 and 2016, which in turn, due to (still) lack of knowledge of German and professional qualifications are mainly dependent on social benefits.
In contrast, the at-risk-of-poverty of the natives has declined slightly again last year - by people who were born in Germany, whether with or without a migration background. Among them, the proportion of people below the poverty risk threshold fell by 0.1 percentage points (with a migration background) or 0.4 percentage points (without a migration background).
The poverty risk threshold is 60 percent of the average income. Whoever lies under it is considered to be at risk of poverty. In 2016, the income threshold for a single household was € 969 net, for a family of four with two small children € 2035 net.
Already in the previous year, the risk of poverty among the locals had fallen. And even the rise among the immigrants is more likely to be a statistical effect than a real aggravation of the situation. For the number of new arrivals in 2017 was relatively low at around 185,000 - while in 2015 and 2016 a total of more than 1.15 million refugees arrived. It is likely that the increase in the poverty rate reported for 2017 in fact reflects the strong influx of previous years.
The reasons: On the one hand, official statistics always reflect real processes with a delay. On the other hand, only persons who live in a private dwelling are included in the microcensus. So long as hundreds of thousands of refugees lived in collective housing, they simply did not exist for the microcensus. All those who did not move into their own homes until 2017 also have had a negative impact on poverty statistics for the first time - and that is negatively, although their life situation has de facto mostly improved.
Threatened by poverty: unemployed, single parents, people without a school-leaving certificate
In the coming years, therefore, the at-risk-of-poverty rate is likely to fall among the immigrants: on the one hand, only a few new people are added - on the other hand, many of the refugees now find themselves in need of social security contributions. From January 2017 to May 2018 alone, more than a hundred thousand of them have succeeded, and experience has shown that this development is accelerating. The WSI researchers conclude that it remains "the key challenge to qualify immigrant immigrants linguistically and professionally and to integrate them quickly into the labor market".
In the video: single parent and poor - destiny poverty trap
NDR
But even if the situation in Germany has not worsened further, some population groups are particularly at risk of poverty. Also in 2017, the risk was very high for lone parents and those without a school leaving certificate, except for recipients of unemployment benefits and the unemployed.
And still, many more children live below the poverty risk threshold. Their share in 2017 was 20.4 percent, well above the value for the total population and 0.2 percentage points higher than in the previous year. In addition, the at-risk-of-poverty increased not only for self-immigrant children, but also for those who were born in Germany but have a migrant background.
Although the WSI researchers predict that child poverty will decline statistically in the coming years - for the individual concerned, this is not necessarily a reason for hope. Because the decline is to be expected only because of WSI, "because the large number of minors immigrated in 2015 will gradually exceed the age limit of 18". Poverty-endangered children then become adults at risk of poverty.
Video: Child Poverty in Germany
MIRROR TV
