The noticeable slowdown in the economy has not yet impacted on the federal budget. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) expects this year with additional tax revenues. The federal government alone can therefore calculate in 2019 against the tax estimate of the spring with a plus of about four billion euros.
This is according to SPIEGEL information from the forecast proposal of the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF) for the tax estimate, which takes place early next week. In addition to the federal government, the federal states, the Bundesbank and the economic research institutes are also participating in the round.
The main reason for the unexpected increase is still the robust income and sales tax revenues. Both sources are bubbling because employment is still rising and wages are on the rise. This in turn has a positive effect on consumption and the related sales tax.
For 2020, the BMF expects federal tax revenues to be half a billion euros lower than predicted this spring. In the following years until 2023 then around one billion euros are missing annually in comparison to the spring estimate. The basis for the tax estimate is the economic forecast of the Federal Government. It expects growth of 0.5 percent this year and one percent next year.
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