Despite economic weakness and digitalization: Germans are hardly afraid of job loss

People in Germany are not afraid to lose their jobs due to the current economic downturn - but they see opportunities as well as the risks that technological structural change means for employees. A large majority therefore demands more money from unemployment insurance for the training of vulnerable workers. This is shown by a representative survey of the opinion polling institute Civey for SPIEGEL.

Until the mid-nineties, there was a clear rule in the German labor market: If the economy weakened, jobs would be massively lost. For this, the economy did not even shrink - unemployment often rose even in years of growth, if this was too low. At the time, worries about the economy were closely linked to the fear of losing a job.

Of this fear is hardly noticeable in the fall of 2019 - although the German economy is clearly weakening. Economists expect it to contract for the second time in a row in the third quarter. However, more than 80 percent of Germans are hardly afraid of losing their jobs, 56.3 percent even respond with a decisive "no, no way". Only 11.6 percent of respondents expressed concern about the job.

The citizens are aware of the cyclical misery, as the SPIEGEL economic monitor shows: three out of five expect the economic situation to worsen in the next twelve months, less than every twentieth, on the other hand, expect an improvement - in this dull mood nothing changed in October.

Only worried about the economy has now completely decoupled from the one about their own job. This is clear from the following graphic. It shows that the fear of losing a job since June 2018 has not even increased minimally - at that time the economy was still running around and such a pronounced dent could not be foreseen. However, even a slightly higher proportion is now convinced that they will "not be unemployed" within a year.

The German citizens, on the other hand, are much more concerned about the technological structural change in the economy than the weak economy.

• Digitization is rapidly affecting the world of work and will continue to do so. Many jobs will disappear, many will re-emerge - and more will change radically and make new demands on those who hold them.
• The growing e-mobility will mean major changes, especially for the hundreds of thousands of workers in the German automotive industry. On the one hand, it offers growth opportunities. On the other hand, the production of electric motors, for example, requires significantly fewer employees than that of internal combustion engines, of which numerous companies in Germany and their specialized specialists still live.
  (Read the SPIEGEL cover story about the future of the German automotive industry here.)

Overall, the German population expects the opportunities and risks of this technological change to be more or less balanced for employees. Thirty-six percent of respondents explicitly agree with this - and roughly the same proportion believe that the risks (33.2 percent) and the opportunities (29.5 percent) predominate.

This balanced expectation can be observed in almost all parts of the population - with a few exceptions. For example, for workers as the only professional group, the view that technological change carries more risks than opportunities is clearly outweighed. Overall, 56 percent of them think so, four out of ten even "clearly".

In addition, the rating of young Germans differs from those of older ones. In those under 40 years of age, the proportion of those who are more likely to see opportunities in technological change is more prevalent - those over the age of 40 who are more likely to see the risks.

Already last year, the Bundestag had decided to significantly increase the subsidies for the qualification of employees - depending on the size of the company, up to 75 percent of the salary and up to 100 percent of the course fees are now covered. These subsidies are paid out of unemployment insurance - as a kind of preventive measure, also as a reaction to the foreseeable need for further education through digitization.

Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) now wants to increase these grants once again, especially for employees particularly affected by technological change. A clear majority of the respondents supports this idea: Exactly two-thirds think it makes sense to spend more money from the unemployment fund, but only 16.7 percent are against it.