Study on stability: Eurozone has become more crisis

This result should also be the legacy of Monday's ECB President Mario Draghi: According to a study, the eurozone has clearly gained stability in recent years. In any case, a breakup or at least a withdrawal of individual heavily indebted states has become a long way off. This emerges from the study of Christoph Kaserer of the Technical University of Munich, as the news agency Reuters reported.

Several innovations have improved the situation. The study names the ESM rescue fund, the new practice of monitoring banks, the possibility of liquidating dilapidated banks, and measures taken by the European Central Bank. The recent debate on higher budget deficits in Italy has shown that the risks of contagion in the euro area are now contained.

Dependence on government bonds as a problem

Despite the reassurance compared to the years 2010 to 2012, the system remains susceptible in some places. But there is still a vicious circle between high public debt and bank problems in the respective countries. Here, Kaserer recommends backing government bonds in the balance sheets of financial institutions with equity - and thus collecting a safety buffer. "This idea should be followed up."

Moreover, according to the study, the high level of domestic government bonds in the bank balance sheets, especially in Italy and Spain, may be dangerous. "This dependency is problematic because it exacerbates the crisis," they say. Reason: If the creditworthiness of a state deteriorates, the banks also get problems. The institutions then have to pay more to stay liquid. "This ultimately leads to an increase in the cost of loans, which in turn has a negative impact on investment and thus growth," said Kaserer. In the vicious circle, the state then takes less tax and runs the risk of getting an even worse credit rating.

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Progress in this area has been manageable since the euro crisis, states Kaserer. Securing government bonds with equity would make these securities less attractive and cause lump risks to decline. The vicious circle could be broken thereby at least a piece.

Commissioned by the study, the Association of the Bavarian economy. Its chief executive, Bertram Brossardt, said it needed political incentives for high-debt countries to be more disciplined in fiscal policy.