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Economic researchers: DIW expects the end of the downturn

2019-10-30T16:13:56.057Z


DIW researchers predict that the economic downturn will be over by the end of the year. Business expectations have stabilized. However, uncertainties remained.



The economic downturn could be over in the last quarter of this year. This predicts the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin.

The business expectations of the companies have stabilized recently, communicated DIW-Konjunktur leader Claus Michelsen. "Slipping into a deeper recession has become less likely at the moment."

In the third quarter, economic output in Germany therefore fell by 0.2 percent. In the last three months of 2019, it was said that gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to stagnate.

Situation continues uncertain

"The continuing weakness of the industry may have recently more and more also on the service industries have broadcast," said Michelsen. "In manufacturing, employment has even fallen, it has not existed for a long time."

The situation remains uncertain. Both the trade conflict between the US and China and Brexit were neither solved nor enforced. Michelsen: "Should it still come to an unregulated withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, that would feel the German economy."

DIHK much pessimistic

The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) had previously expressed much more pessimistic. The business expectations of the companies had suffered a significant slump, the association said. The companies invested less. Above all, the export-oriented German industry will be burdened by the weakness of the global economy.

The DIHK now expects GDP growth of only 0.4 percent for full-year 2019. Last fall, the association had expected a growth of 1.7 percent. In the coming year, it could be enough for a plus of 0.5 percent. However, the next year will have more working days.

The Federal Government, in turn, expects growth of 0.5 percent in the current year, as will the leading economic research institutes, and growth of one percent in 2020.

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2019-10-30

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