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Pensions: what the reform impact study contains


For its pension reform project, the government presented this Friday to the Council of Ministers a document of 1000 pages.

The document is a thousand pages. A thousand pages to present the bill establishing a universal retirement system and present the imposing definitive impact study. Adopted this Friday morning in the Council of Ministers, this text, delivered at the end of two years of negotiations and social tensions, is divided into three parts.

First, an “organic” bill - necessary for the future device to apply to parliamentarians and magistrates - which imposes the golden rule on financial balance. In the second part, the “ordinary” bill details at length the reasons for reform and then unrolls the 65 articles which lay the foundations of the future universal system (retirement with points, age of equilibrium, end of special regimes…). And in the third part, 900 pages devoted to the impact of the reform, some elements of which are criticized by the Council of State. Here's what to remember.

The more modest will do better. According to this study, because it will be "more redistributive" the universal system will make the most modest retirees "the big winners of the reform". As proof, the simulations presented predict that the pensions of the 25% of the most modest retirees will be 30% higher compared to the current system. The introduction of a minimum pension equal to 85% of the minimum wage in 2025, will allow for example an ex-employee born in 1980 and still paid minimum wage to increase his pension by 65 euros gross per month. For a farmer it will be 180 euros more, for a trader who has contributed 800 hours to the minimum wage, 363 euros.

Losing teachers but ... In the public service, specifies the impact study, the amount of the average pension will be preserved due to the inclusion of premiums in the universal scheme. On the other hand, the text acts although the teachers will lose out. This is why, as it is written black and white, there is provision for a "progressive revaluation" of the treatments, "from 2022", to "neutralize the potential loss". Revaluation still under negotiation.

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Better upgrading of pensions . The planned revaluation of pensions based on the average increase in wages and no longer on inflation appears, in the impact study, to be much more interesting. An active worker who liquidated his retirement rights in 1993 would now have an 18.7% higher pension if it had been revalued at the rate of wages.

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An average departure delayed by six months . Currently, the average retirement age is 63.5 years. According to simulations, two out of five future retirees born in 1975 (first generation affected by the introduction of a pivotal age - probably 64 years) will postpone their departure by 2.5 years on average. But three in ten will be able to liquidate their retirement two years earlier on average. At cruising speed (1990 generation and beyond), the study estimates that the reform will lead to a six-month drop in retirement compared to today.

An expected return to equilibrium ... According to the study, without new measures, the return to financial equilibrium of the pension system could not have taken place before 2060. The application of the reform of the universal system should allow regain this balance in 2049. But the golden rule enshrined in the law, which will impose a permanent balance of accounts over five years, requires rebalancing the accounts from 2027.

… But declining means . The envelope allocated to pensions will well decrease. The spending trajectory provided for in the text aims to reduce the share of GDP spent on pensions in order to approach the average of the 28 EU countries: 12.2% of GDP. According to this trajectory, spending will drop from 14.2% of GDP currently to 13.6% in 2025 and 12.9% in 2050. Or a drop of around 3 billion euros on a current expenditure of 320 billion d euros.

A more relevant retirement simulator . In parallel with the tabling of the bill, the government enriched this Friday with thirty typical cases its pension simulator opened in December. Internet users who want to know the impact of the reform now have 70 standard cases to get an idea. To be tested on

Source: leparis

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