Laura Garcia
02/25/2020 - 15:23
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
Between this Wednesday and Friday, Martín Guzmán will have another face-to-face with the distrustful peso market , in the process of laborious reconstruction until the reperfilation of the "Alberto bonus" dynamited much of that effort.
Is that the Minister of Economy must pay about $ 23,000 million. They are mostly Lecap issued last May and reperfiled in the management of Hernán Lacunza as Minister of Finance, in the hands of private individuals who decided to wait for the last 60% disbursement promised by the schedule.
The market is convinced that there will be no surprises regarding the fulfillment of the commitment but they are clear that Guzmán's ability to "lift" market weights to cover it is more than questionable.
Without going any further, in the last tender of Lebad (treasury bills that pay Badlar plus one interest), he only got about $ 3.6 billion . That is why the bet of many is that this time it will be covered with monetary issue, even though this Wednesday there will be another tender.
Miguel Zielonka, Associate Director of Econviews , is of the opinion that the plan is already underway: transitional advances. "The BCRA issues pesos and lends them to the Treasury," he simplifies. "On February 7, the Treasury has already taken $ 20,000 million. And on February 13, another $ 27,000 million. And it can continue to take. They will try to raise funds with Lebad but the difference will be covered with advances," he says.
Enter, likewise, a positive note: "It seems to me that Wednesday's bidding will be a little better. The public sector will also charge Lecap so they will surely turn part of that into the bidding ."
According to Leonardo Chialva, partner of Delphos Investment , this maturity would also be covered with money orders from the Central Bank. And he explains: "In principle, this 'closed' local market situation for the Treasury is perceived as transitory. It is a product of the non-payment of the AF20. That changed the domestic perception again since the local actors were very sensitive after Lacunza's re-inflation. ".
"The success in the exchange of the AF20 and the fact that the Treasury offered attractive exchange alternatives could serve to bring calm again. No country in the world can pay everything if nobody rolls it, " he warns.
The problem is that the maturities soar in the next two months, which greatly limits the margin to take strategies out of the galley. Lecap alone is about $ 80,000 million in March and another $ 90,000 million in April.
Alejandro Kowalczuk, Head Porfolio Manager of Argenfunds , argues: "The issue is why we believe that future payments in pesos will be met if the maturity of the AF20 represented about US $ 1,157 million and between March and April we have maturities by 10 times that amount, or for more than 3 times if we consider only the titles held by private parties. "
Indeed, in March there are commitments in pesos for the equivalent of US $ 4,990 million and in April for US $ 6,830 million (both calculated at a cash settlement of $ 80.58), which are reduced to US $ 1,920 million for each of those months if we only count private holders , explains the economist. "But in any of the cases they significantly exceed the maturity of the 2020 dual bonus," Kowalczuk points out.
" The market has taken the position of 'to be paid first and see what to do next' , so we will see what happens on Wednesday. I think that the demand for private companies will remain low, the amounts that will be rolled will be limited and the government should choose to pay with genuine funds, issue or re-rebalance, "says skeptic.
It's not the only one. The rates shown by the peso market today also reflect these doubts about the likelihood of more repercussions. "A bond such as BOGATO 2020 (A2M2) , which expires in a few days (March 6), yields directly 31%, which has led to the annual nominal rate reaches an anecdotal 1,417% . And Lecap with maturities that from 10 to 25 days they operate at an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of between 200% and 250%, "Kowalczuk contributes.
The rate is a reflection of the risk assumed with the investment. And in the short term, nothing seems clear.
