"The world is not going into recession but is facing a big shock"

Jean-Hervé Lorenzi analyzes the economic impact of the coronavirus and the evolution of relations between the United States, China and Europe.

LE FIGARO. - With the coronavirus epidemic spreading beyond China, do you fear a global economic crisis?

Jean-Hervé LORENZI. - The IMF assesses the impact of the coronavirus on world growth at 0.1 or 0.2 point of GDP. This is a rather optimistic estimate, the IMF is thus in its role: it does not wish to be anxiety-provoking. But even the effect on activity in China - a country that weighs 20% of the world's GDP alone - should cost the world at least 0.3 points of growth. If we start from the generally accepted assumption that this crisis will affect us for two quarters, its impact should reach half a point of global growth by integrating its effects on our own countries. The world is not going into recession, but it is undoubtedly a major shock that first affects the exporting countries and certain

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