Le Figaro
With containment, load deferrals are automatically granted to companies. Problem, the payment of the deposit on corporation tax (IS) as well as the payment of social and employer contributions to the Urssaf fell on ... March 15, with the exception of the social charges of companies with more than 50 employees who fall on April 5, freelancers on March 21 and auto-entrepreneurs on March 31. Very tight deadlines, therefore, even already passed and a multitude of interlocutors to contact for companies.
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The amount of carryovers expected by the government is 6.6 billion on the IS, or half of the revenue expected over the period. On this point, 40,000 requests have already been processed with 80% of positive responses (or around 32,000 companies) for 2 billion euros in deferred payments. We can see that 20% of companies have been turned down for tax deferral because their situation is not considered to be bad enough.
If there is no estimate for the CVAE (Contribution on the added value of companies) and the CFE (Land contribution of companies), the State will guarantee the product to local authorities. For these two direct debits, the deferral only applies to monthly companies and could be due on December 15.
Regarding social security contributions: the postponement is also 3 months (June 15, therefore) and is automatically granted without penalty, without proof of contributions for sickness, maternity, invalidity and death, old age, family, work accident and occupational diseases, contribution solidarity autonomy (CSA), the CSG, the CRDS, the FNAL. Please note, the Urssaf are less flexible than the DGFiP since there is no provision for reimbursement in the event that the contributions have already been paid.
Out of nearly 1.5 million companies with fewer than 50 employees, nearly 510,000 have delayed their payments for a total amount of nearly 4 billion euros out of the 8.5 billion expected in March. But on April 5, 13 billion euros were also to be paid by companies with more than 50 employees: we do not yet know the amount of deferrals. Same thing for the independents, the deferral of charges will be spread from April to December, depending on the situation, for 250 million euros.
The government's initial plan was for a cash flow effort linked to carryovers of almost 35 billion euros (including 12 billion on corporate tax, 21.5 on payroll taxes and 1 billion on payroll tax ). The load carry-over calculations are calibrated for two-month contribution stays and 3 or 10-month deferrals depending on the profiles. If general containment is to be maintained entirely or partially in May, for example, the cash effects would be greater and could reach 52.5 billion euros.
For the moment, the government considers that these are only the deferral of charges and taxes. That they will therefore have to be paid staggered by the companies. The impact on the public deficit is currently minimized since in the amending finance law the State assesses the drop to 7.2 billion in uncollected revenue in 2020.
Unfortunately, this may be much more if the containment lasts longer than expected. It may be that the deferrals of charges and taxes are made over a much longer period with spreading of receivables without penalty of 2 years or more. The 2020 financial year will be very strongly impacted in budget accounting.
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In addition, part of the deferral of charges and taxes will be definitively lost for public revenue. There will certainly be a share related to bankruptcies. But beyond that, for the most fragile companies, decisions will have to be made on a case-by-case basis to cancel deferred charges and taxes. Highly indebted companies that will have lost 50% of their turnover in 2020 are likely to be affected.
Among all these unknowns, it is not possible to estimate either the 2020 cost (but also 2021, 2022, etc.) of the time lags for public finances, or the extent of the charges cancellation. In comparison, Germany is already officially expecting 33.5 billion euros in public revenue cuts for this year. In France, given the situation of our public finances, we can also understand that the government does not want to create a fresh air by pronouncing for a cancellation of the generalized carryforward of charges. Our country's little room for maneuver compared to Germany is all the more glaring.
Le Figaro
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