It had been announced for weeks, but the one that ended confirmed it: France entered with losses and noise in recession.
Unemployment, GDP, consumption ... Suddenly these last few days, like a series of warning lights each passing red, key indicators of the French economy have collapsed, each reaching their lowest level since their own creation, there has several decades. Here are six graphics, like six photographs of a machine stopped, which allow us to measure the scale of a crisis that promises to be lasting.
GDP in free fall
A shock which goes far beyond the quarter which followed the 2008 financial crisis (-1.6%) as well as the contraction of activity recorded in the second quarter of 1968 (-5.3%). Sign of the violence of the shock, this statistic only concerns the first three months of the year, and therefore only the last fifteen days of confinement and suspension of non-essential activities in France. It is a sign that the “worst is yet to come”, as Bercy already anticipated. If we lift the hood of GDP, we find no surprise bloodless sub-indicators, whether it is the trade balance (-6.5% of exports, -5.9% of exports), investment (-11.8%) or household consumption (-6.1%).
Consumption, where are you?
The consumption of manufactured goods fell sharply (-42.3%) - notably the clothing sector (-54%) - and energy expenditure also (-11.4%), which is mainly explained by the drop in fuel sales. Only food consumption increased significantly (+ 7.8%).
Unemployment: this time, the curve is reversed…
An unprecedented jump in unemployment, which can be seen on the far left of the curve above (which only concerns metropolitan France). More than a massive wave of layoffs - prevented by the massive use of short-time working, it is above all a massive drop in hiring that we are witnessing, assures the Ministry of Labor. Public works, personal services, tourism, trade, entertainment: not surprisingly, the sectors most affected by this phenomenon are also the most affected by the containment put in place in mid-March.
Household morale in socks
In detail, the fears of the French in April focused on the future of living standards, unemployment, and inflation.
Business climate storm warning
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Again, this is unheard of since the birth of this statistical series in 1980. The previous floor, 69, dated from March 2009. In the detail of this gigantic barometer, it will be noted that the employment climate (the hiring prospects therefore) lost 25 points in April after losing 11 in March. It has been at its lowest since its birth in 1991.
These figures join another economic survey, less known to the general public but religiously followed in economic circles, the definitive composite PMI. This indicator, which measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, recorded its largest contraction in March since its creation. The figures for April are expected and feared for next week.
The automotive industry crash
No jealousy: PSA and Renault saw their sales collapse by more than 80% each, according to the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA).
