Silvia Naishtat
05/06/2020 - 17:54
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
Sometimes I have to bite my tongue to not make projections, the panorama is really very bad, "started Marco Lavagna, director of Indec, in a zoom meeting organized by the Mediterranean Foundation. Lavagna had been preceded by Jorge Vasconcelos who warned Argentina has a gigantic anti-cyclical fund as Chile , which, according to his estimate, is the US $ 200 billion that Argentines have abroad . According to Vasconcelos, if there are obstacles, they do not return . From that perspective, he urged Lavagna to Indec very transparentThinking of those who invest in pesos in securities adjusted for inflation or GDP, for which the measurement of the Indec is key to giving confidence. The story of the Indec by Guillermo Moreno seems to have founded that concern, something that Lavagna took care of, during the two hours of conversation, to point out that the Indec that Jorge Todesca had already transformed into the Macri government, continues on the “ line of the transparency seeking a quality leap ”.
When the 16 were made, Lavagna based his pessimism by reporting the fall in March of 46% in construction and another almost 17% in industrial activity compared to a year ago. April does not improve.
Minutes earlier, Vasconcelos had referred to the dangers of monetary issue and its transfer to prices. But Lavagna relativized it by pointing out that it is not verified in the price indices, something that he attributed to the fact that part of the issue was for bills and securities held by the banks. "The only tool available is broadcasting. For now it has no impact on inflation, which does not mean that if it continues, it will not. At this time the State has to put the meat on the grill knowing the impact of this crisis. Such a fall in the economy, deserves that the State is present, " said the head of Indec.
In a virtual auditorium where Pía Astori, Sebastián Bagó, Sergio Roggio, Roberto Amengual and Rosana Negrini, among other businessmen, were, the questions were to the bone.
-Does Indec measure the maximum prices as they are in the list or as they appear in the gondola and what does it do when those products are not there? Do you take into account the replacement that is usually more expensive? , they wanted to know.
-We don't look at the maximum price list, the survey area looks at the true gondola price. Regarding the shortages, we have a methodology about how the prices of similar products are taken. This time it happened to us that there are more closed and missing businesses, but we did not change the methodology.
-How did you manage to measure prices with quarantine?
-In March we had almost all of them released. And in April it was combined with an Indec that was already taking many prices as services in a virtual way.
-How can there be inflation, with almost everything still and maximum prices?
- I do not understand the increases that there are but they have been occurring in the last three years with a drop in activity, and they should have slowed down but this was not the case. Inflation has become more complex, there is cost inflation in which financial and other factors linked to survival play. We have gone from inflation caused by bottlenecks and supply problems to one of more monetary costs. Here economic theory does not apply. And there are also many distortions of the marketing channels.
As for the economic outlook, Lavagna took care to always insist that the crisis is global, with an engine like China suffering the worst drop in economic activity in its history. And he admitted that the fiscal cost limits the duration of the isolation "This pandemic is a blow to the heart of the functioning of society, where the economic is central. The situation is very difficult with the additional problem that there is no history in this, there is no mapped path. ” In his reasoning, there is a combination of supply and demand crises with a scenario of significant GDP decline that “happens to all countries in the midst of phenomenal destruction. The ILO (International Labor Organization) affirms that the global quarantine is affecting 68% of the workforce, with 2 billion jobs falling at high speed in a context where world trade can contract 32% . All in a short time ”, he indicated.
For the holder of the Indec there is an almost alphabetical discussion as to how the recovery will be, if it is fast, slow, with oscillations or we will be in the well. What Lavagna has no doubt about is the role of the State in an Argentina that has 70% of the activity affected.
"The question is whether this is an accelerated leap into the 21st century or are we going to a social Darwinism," he concluded without giving an answer.
