06/05/2020 - 17:51
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
The US employment data, released earlier in the day and turned out much better than expected, fueled a sharp rise in stock markets around the world. This morning it was learned that 2.5 million jobs had been created in May (recovered, that would be the right thing to do) and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%, after the April disaster.
Now analysts are beginning to think that the economic recovery in the northern hemisphere could take place more pronounced - a short time - than was feared at the start of the pandemic and the quarantines that were applied in different countries.
In the case of Argentina, the positive momentum translated into the fact that the S&P MerVal index of leading stocks closed the wheel on Friday with a gain of 3.3% . Thus, he rounded off a very positive week, accumulating between Monday and today an improvement of 20%.
The bonds, which had recovered in the previous weeks, had quiet wheels, with little movement and the country risk index closed at 2,539 points
Given that the exchange rate almost did not move in the week, it is a gain in hard currency, highly anticipated by local investors in the midst of a depressing economic horizon, and even with the uncertainty - not resolved - about the fate of the negotiations. between the Government and the bondholders that will determine if Argentina falls back into a general default or not. The blue dollar was $ 125, the cash with $ 115 and the MEP at $ 110. The retail dollar sold by the Central was located at $ 71.
These days, what happens with the shares of Argentine companies listed in New York in the form of ADRs becomes relevant.
The results were remarkable. Papers from the financial sector ( Galicia, Macro, French, Supervielle ) closed the week with gains of between 4 and 5% but accumulated recoveries of up to 20% on the last wheels.
It is true that these papers suffered collapses at various stages. The first on the Monday following the PASO of August 2019 that pre-announced the victory of the Front of All. Then, not very fruitful conversations with the bondholders pushed prices further down. And the economic quarantine resembled a knock-out blow , from which they are only now trying to recover, although - what has been said - the debt swap resolution is still pending.
At the local level, the calm in the exchange rate encouraged investors to buy assets that can make big and quick profits. After all, the Argentine market, in dollars, is worth less than 60% of what it was before the PASOs today.
Of course, this drop is due not only to the fact that the market did not digest well the victory of the Front of All, also and above all to the fact that the Argentine economic scenario is far from clear. Without agreement with the bondholders it is easy to imagine that the situation would worsen even more if that were possible.
According to the bondholders, the outlook is only slightly better: macroeconomic imbalances are in sight, and correcting them will not be an easy task, in a highly demanding scenario from the social point of view, with poverty indicators that will be even worse than those you could imagine just six months ago.
