After the confinement, life resumes, and the economy too. For the Governor of the Bank of France, the recovery could even be faster than expected for France, reports the Reuters agency. The institution estimates indeed that at the end of June, the French economy turned to only 12% below its capacities, against -32% at the beginning of the confinement in March.
"I'm not saying at all that we are out of the woods, it's a very serious crisis. In addition, its effects on employment are offset over time, so they are coming, but the recovery is going at least as well as we had expected, and even a little better, "assured François Villeroy de Galhau on LCI.
In its estimates published in June, the Banque de France predicted a contraction of French GDP by 15% for the second quarter. A situation that could even be a little better, predicts this Sunday the Governor of the Bank of France, who must update his estimates next Tuesday.
A recovery in "bird wing"
Over the whole year, "the latest trends confirm our figure, it will be -10% or -we will be revising in September- maybe a little better," concluded the governor.
He described a recovery curve "in a bird's wing", with first a "brutal plunge, we go back like a half-V at the beginning, but then, it will gradually flatten out because we will put more time to return to the initial level, that of before March ", explained François Villeroy de Galhau, counting on a rhythm comparable to that known before the crisis" probably in 2022, at the beginning of the year or mid-year " .
For its part, the Ministry of Economy had also estimated that the "vigorous recovery of consumption" started after the deconfinement would encourage a rebound in the economy.
Losses difficult to compensate
In a document posted online Friday, Bercy envisaged a rebound in growth of 8% in 2021, without taking into account the effects of the stimulus plan that the government will present before the fall and which should strengthen growth.
However, this rebound will not erase the losses suffered this year by the French economy: "GDP in 2021 would remain approximately 4% below its level in 2019", estimates Bercy, whose forecasts for the year next are more optimistic than those of the IMF (+ 7.3%).
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In general, Bercy warns that there are still a lot of uncertainties around these figures: "A resurgence of the epidemic or conversely the rapid discovery of a vaccine are likely to delay or accelerate the reprise ".