Laura Garcia
07/07/2020 - 14:09
- Clarín.com
- Economy
- Economy
In the battle against the gap between the official dollar and the blue, and the multiple restrictions that were tried to appease devaluation expectations, the Central Bank finally saw results in June, whenhe was able to stop putting reservations on the table and in fact start getting them back . But this month he is again selling more than he can buy.
Between April (US $ 547 million) and May (US $ 679 million). the monetary entity had to sell US $ 1,226 million , with the paradox of a conjuncture of trade surplus and in the middle of the harvest liquidation season. This means that it was time, actually, to strengthen the coffers.
After imposing restrictions to discourage the purchase and sale of the alternative dollars that are obtained on the Stock Exchange (MEP and with liqui), the Central managed to buy US $ 672 million last month, almost the same amount that it yielded in May , although still halfway through the sale accumulated during quarantine.
The adjustment of nuts for the importing stocks was the decisive move, although it was later relaxed to guarantee the operation. There were days, in June, anyway, when even with all the exchange artillery mounted, he was forced to sell.
There were four, with a maximum amount of US $ 85 million. The peak of purchases had indeed been on May 29 when it took $ 280 million in a paralyzed demand market. Julio no longer started as well, with a sale of US $ 100 million, according to the latest official data. International reserves are at US $ 43,257 million.
There is a small collateral issue. The purchase of dollars implies delivering pesos to the market and that means a source of monetary emission (it turns money into the street).
Thus, in June it issued $ 46.4 billion , which in the same way pales when compared to the $ 200 billion of profits that it transmitted to the Treasury.
In June, the absorption effort via Leliq to withdraw excess pesos that could go to the dollar is also clear. Not only was $ 146,669 million sterilized in April, but it was added to another $ 335,508 million in June, to total $ 482,177 million in two months.
A complete change of strategy with respect to what had been initiated at the beginning of the quarantine (renew less than what was due to grant liquidity to the banks and support for subsidized loans).
Even so, the monetary base expanded in June although $ 33.2 billion against $ 264.164 million the previous month, with a somewhat more restrictive trend .
With the alternative dollars in slight withdrawal, the Central Bank took the opportunity to accelerate the passage in the wholesale market, which is already advancing 18% in the year, to $ 71. The gap with the cash settlement -which climbs 48% in 2020- is around 52%.
It is the famous "landslide" that has been charging clean and jerk. And with a very simple mechanism: normally, the entity makes a sale position in the plaza at a certain price , about six cents above the previous closing.
But on Mondays, it's 18 cents to "catch up" with Saturday and Sunday. Thus, with the holidays that are coming, for example, it is to be expected that on Monday she will put her "chip" ", as they say in the City, 30 cents up.
According to the latest BCRA survey, the main players in the market see a dollar of $ 88 as of December this year and $ 122.5 by the end of next year.
"The market, likewise, is operating very little. Today it moves what a year ago a holiday in the United States was moving," they comment in an exchange office.
