08/04/2020 - 19:21
HeThe "blue" dollar fell 8 pesos and the "cash with liquidation" fell 5%, closing at $ 114.97 to the relief of the government and financial market operators who had bet on an agreement by President Alberto Fernández.with external creditors.
On the day after the official announcement of the expected understanding, the rise of up to 10% in stocks and 7% in bonds marked the festive climate that already halfway through the wheel began to record sales of occasional buyers who sought to realize their earnings .
Having avoided falling into a total default, the President also succeeded in making part of his political gain effective, affirming that "now we have the horizon cleared" in a message to businessmen who "have a better scenario to project their businesses."
How long will the relief last? What can you expect in the short and medium term?
In soccer terms, the Government avoided a win but the draw is far away and the way, as announced by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, has his next stop at the International Monetary Fund.
There they await him to talk about how Argentina will face the maturities of 2022 and 2023, which total $ 40 billion . Will Guzman go to speak to Kristalina Georgieva soon?
Political times would indicate yes. Within a year the campaign for the legislative elections would be full and the Government wants to prevent the closure of a program with the agency (it always asks to reduce the deficit , more economic openness and savings) from becoming an electoral issue for a customary society mostly to decide their vote based on the situation of their pocket .
But before formally resorting to the IMF, the government began to implement its economic management plan based on the conviction that the agreement with the bondholders should decompress the tensions on the exchange market.
Without shrillness, with the three point rise in the rate for fixed-term deposits of retailers, Miguel Angel Pesce aligned two fundamental variables to navigate the situation, trying to have the least possible impact on the course of inflation.
The scheme, in summary, is that the yield of the rate in pesos (33% annually) exceeds the rate of increase of the official dollar that in July, annualized, would give 31%.
If this rate attracts retailers and Treasury bills to wholesalers, especially banks to place their surpluses (they offer 32% per year or the variation of the CER plus 1.5%), plus the absorption produced by the Leliq (Central Bank liquidity bills that pay banks 38%), a containment network would be generated so that the pesos do not go to the dollar .
Thus the scheme anticipates: full validity of the exchange stock (in the Central they assure that the payment of imports is normalized), even when there is a "trickle" of reserves and the Central expects that the foreign currency settlements of the second part of the year will be equal to those of the second semester of 2019.
The confirmation of the stocks is followed by the "crawling peg" ruling out any jump in the dollar . The official will be increasing at a rate of 2.6% per month, below the yield of the interest rate and trying not to drive the rise in inflation via pressure on food, many of which are governed by the wholesale dollar.
Minister Martín Guzmán now has the challenge of negotiating with the IMF. Photo Télam
But the Achilles heel of the scheme remains the "exchange gap" that, even with the drop in the"counted with liqui" from August 4, remains above 65%.
One hope of the Government is that with the dollarization of the so-called "PIMCO bonds" endorsed by Congress, the demand for foreign exchange on the CCL could drop.
Those bonds in pesos issued in the days of Mauricio Macri will be transferred to dollars in a measure that the former minister criticized.Roberto Lavagna and to which the Government had said that it would never resort.
The main holder is that powerful foreign investment fund and that, they suppose in the Central Bank, with the officialized dollarization, there would be no need to go to the market to buy the currencies with what, supposedly, would subtract demand from the CCL circuit.
CCL's demand comes mainly from foreign investment funds that want to take the dollars, but they also intervene in that segment that came to move US $ 95 million per day , mutual guarantee companies and insurance companies.
For the Government, the reduction of the exchange gap became a primary objective after the debt agreement was closed and for that, they understand in Economics, it would be essential that both the Treasury, the Central Bank, banks, companies and Little savers, lean on the weight circuit. Will it be possible to convince buyers of dollars?
The early response seems difficult, especially when the same day that Clarín announced that the agreement was closed, the retailers demanded the homebankig to make the $ 200 monthly savings.
The intention to "de-dollarize" the savings is once again on the table of official priorities and is part of the scheme for the situation that aims to win wills after an agreement with the foreign creditors that brought relief.