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The pressure on the dollar does not ease: the cash with liquid passes $ 130 and the blue dollar rises to $ 132

2020-08-12T18:28:11.150Z


At the beginning of the month, the Central Bank sold US $ 450 million to supply the demand. The number of people using the US $ 200 quota is growing.


Annabella quiroga

08/12/2020 - 13:20

  • Clarín.com
  • Economy
  • Economy

At the beginning of August, the pressure on the dollar was redoubled. The appetite for greenbacks was stronger than the optimism that colored the market after the announcement of the debt deal. Thus, financial dollars do not stop their march. This Wednesday, the cash with liqui (CCL) rises 2% and reaches $ 130, while the  blue dollar increases to  $ 132 .

Meanwhile, the official retail dollar rises 15 cents at the start and stands at $ 77.31.  With the PAIS tax it reaches $ 100.50 . The stock market dollar or MEP is trading at $ 126.25, a 1.4% rise.

The rise in alternative dollars and the growing demand for banknotes - it is estimated that 20% more people bought at the beginning of the month than at the beginning of July -, redouble the pressure on the Central Bank, which so far this month already he fell from US $ 450 million to supply the market.

A report from the consulting firm Libertad y Progreso indicates that in June the number of Argentines who took advantage of the US $ 200 monthly quota increased . "24.6% of the economically active population bought dollars in June, when in May it was only 17.9%." In July, the collection of the PAIS tax - the 30% surcharge on the purchase of foreign currency - was $ 20,017 million, 41.8% more than in June. This suggests that there was a new jump in the number of people who bought.

In May, 2.4 million people bought official dollars, with an average of US $ 190, while in June there were 3.3 million with an average of US $ 193. It is estimated that in July there were more than 4 million buyers. At the start of August there would have been an additional jump of 20%.

With this level of demand and despite the restrictive effect of the stocks, there seem to be no dollars that will reach it . From the Ecolatina consultancy they emphasize that despite the commercial surplus that in the first semester exceeds US $ 8,000 million, "the Central has had to sell net foreign currency in the formal market so far this year. As of July 27, the balance of The intervention yields a balance of US $ -326 million and, if added to this, the placement of non-transferable bills to the Treasury for US $ 3,200 million to pay debt, it is understood that the net reserves are close to US $ 10,000 million, a threshold that led - the previous and this administration - to implement greater restrictions ".

The consultant maintains that "neither the BCRA nor the national government are showing signs that the local currency is going to stabilize, thus serving as a reserve of value. Given this, the population's alternative is to consume or dollarize their savings. Therefore, demand for pesos will continue to fall and, therefore, lose purchasing power , which will continue to be reflected in high inflation. "

Francisco Gismondi, director of Macroeconomics at Empiria consultants, pointed out that in recent months "the dollar clearly detached itself from inflation, that is, the pesos were going towards there. The more excess pesos there are, the greater the gap and therefore Of course, in the end there is always pressure to devalue the official. " Speaking to radio Millenium, he pointed out that "it does not seem that at the moment the Central Bank sees a devaluation as something possible. Everything will continue to be the same in what has to do with the official dollar. Eventually the excess of pesos will be transferred to the Gap. Because of the situation, the stocks are here to stay and there is no immediate and possible alternative. "

AQ

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2020-08-12

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