Mary Church
08/28/2020 - 6:00
- Clarín.com
- Economy
The Central Bank decided to enter the debt swap organized by the Government, in its version under local legislation, with all the securities it owns. In this way, it will have in its possession about $ 13,500 million in bonds with which it will be able to intervene in the financial dollar market to try to reduce the exchange rate gap.
The monetary authority reported that the Central Board of Directors "approved entering the debt swap with local legislation, according to the call made by the Ministry of Economy through the announcement made on August 18, 2020, with all the eligible species in the portfolio from this institution for new bonds in US dollars ” .
The way in which this tool could be used to lower, if it is considered necessary, the dollar counted with settlement and the dollar stock market, and also the moment in which it would be done, is part of the strategy of the entity in charge of Miguel Pesce. That is why they will not reveal if or when they will.
The widening of the exchange rate gap, which stood at the 80% zone, is a cause for concern in the Government. With the shrinking these days they breathed in the official corridors.
Although they trusted that the rise in cash with liquidation was due to the fact that some investors were switching to securities in order to enter the debt swap, and they were pushing up the price of this dollar, it was only in recent days that they could feel some relief (which will have to be evaluated in the coming weeks if it is temporary or not).
In fact, while the official dollar this Thursday rose a few cents (and also the blue), in the opposite direction the cash with liquidation, which had started the week at a level of $ 135, was trading at $ 126.6. This is a decrease of 1.4% in one day, which accumulates a 6.2% drop so far this week.
Federico Furiase , from EcoGo, estimates that the Central Bank has in its portfolio bonds for about US $ 13,500 million that today are confirmed to enter the debt swap. The monetary authority would have two options with these titles, reasons the economist. One would be to sell them to decompress the exchange rate gap, and in turn, take pesos out of the market.
"Another alternative would be if the bonds in dollars rise after the exchange (and the country risk falls) and decompresses the gap in this way, the BCRA could sell part of the bonds against dollars to rebuild net reserves without expanding the monetary base , " he added.
In the pxq consultancy, of the economist Emanuel Álvarez Agis , they identified a paradox: they calculate that the Central has about US $ 15,000 million that enter the exchange, so the firepower in the market of the parallel exchange rate would be greater than that of the official .
It is because they compute that of the total reserves, by subtracting the loans that exist and leaving only the net ones, there remain about US $ 10,000 million, less than the total in bonds that the Central owns.
Thus, the monetary authority will have a significant position in the dollar securities that will be the new benchmarks for the stock market dollar and cash with settlement, they evaluate.
The Central decided to enter the debt swap under local legislation carried out by Martín Guzmán's team. The operation, although it closes on September 15, has an “early acceptance” period in which holders receive a higher value per security exchanged. That deadline expires on September 1st.
In the Government they trust that there will be a massive participation of local investors. It is no wonder: after having “kicked” forward the payments of the securities in dollars, it was included that those who do not enter will receive a payment for their bonds only in December 2021.
EB
