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Dollar: the US $ 200 is still in the crosshairs, but how they will devalue is defined

2020-09-09T00:33:20.768Z

The Central Bank will continue with the sale to retailers. And the Government rules out an exchange rate jump.



Daniel Fernandez Canedo

08/09/2020 - 19:57

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Former minister

Jorge Remes Lenicov

, who was at the helm during the 2002 crisis, focused on the Argentine Political Club on one of the most sensitive problems of the Argentine economy in times of uncertainty such as the current ones.

Referring to the Argentine case of 2002 and the overcoming of that crisis, he highlighted the presentation of a comprehensive plan through a "shock" in the first two months based on

a high exchange rate with strong

fiscal and monetary

control

.

Those three measures, emphasized the former minister, generated a

"confidence"

effect

that made possible the

income of between US $ 15,000 and US $ 20,000 million

that "allowed the financing of the agricultural harvest and the recovery of consumption."

At the beginning of the administration, a part of the civil servants dreamed of that resolution to bring the economy out of stagnation even running the risk, according to Karl Marx, that history repeats itself first as a tragedy and later as a farce.


For the Government, the official dollar is not behind -

"it is 20% above the first devaluation of Macri,

" said a senior official to defend the wholesaler at $ 74.71 - and the bet these days is to rule out both a

"jump to the Kicillof "

as the

doubling

in a commercial exchange rate to channel exports and imports and another financial one for the rest of the external obligations.

Regarding the

US $ 200 monthly

quota for purchases by retailers, the tension within the Government continues to rise.

This month there will again be four million buyers of the $ 200 for "savings."

September 1 was a day of

massive purchases

of US $ 200 and the projection of the Central Bank is that again this month there will be four million buyers, many of whom will have the ticket at $ 102.37 of the "saving dollar" for sell it in the

"blue" at $ 127 to make a retail "pure"

that leaves $ 4,926.

With the window of US $ 200, the Central Bank has no other option, in the current context, but to lose reserves, since the sale of foreign currency by exporters is at least meager.

The obvious question is why Miguel Pesce

it keeps a window open in which

demand

always

exceeds supply

.

And the answer is being tested by the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán.

Both President Alberto Fernández and his minister want to defend those

four million

middle-class

Argentines

, many of whom believe they have voted for them and, in addition, are betting on changing expectations about a jump in the dollar once the

successful exchange of debt

and negotiations are under way for an agreement with the IMF.

In the Central they believe less in expectations than in constant and sound issues.

Alberto Fernández observes this Tuesday the assembly line of the Royal Enfield motorcycles, at the company's plant in Campana.

Inside and outside the Government, the vision, according to the long experience of Peronism in exchange crises, is that the supply of foreign currency appears when the Central clearly shows that it is

gaining reserves

.

With the bank loaded, the point does not face him.

The issue is that today the Central Bank

does not recover reserves

, in part because agricultural producers are waiting for the evolution of soybeans to rise in the world market (it is at

US $ 353 per ton

before the weakness of the dollar worldwide), but also because of the deep uncertainty that the fall of the grain producer Vicentín unleashed.

The other argument, which the authorities dismiss outright, is that exporters are waiting for

a devaluation

based on the assumption, with criteria, that an "exchange rate gap" of 60% or more is unsustainable for a long time.

From the Government the answer is categorical:

there will not be an exchange rate jump

like the one applied by the Axel Kicillof-Juan Carlos Fábrega tandem in January 2014 because it would generate inflation and would not be able to convince exporters to liquidate currencies or banknote holders to get them off the "mattress".

At that time, the dollar rose 22%, going from $ 6.52 to $ 8.01, the transfer to inflation was quite fast and the fall in purchasing power was felt quickly.

The Central Bank maintains open a "window" in which the demand for dollars always exceeds the supply.

Photo Marcelo Carroll

In the Central Bank they claim to be clear that a devaluation of those characteristics would further deepen the decline in income already enhanced by the pandemic and quarantine.

So,

will they unfold the exchange market ?, 

was the forced question a senior official who answered, in a personal capacity, with a resounding "No".

The crux of doubling the market, something that Peronism also knows, is to define which activities go for the "commercial" dollar and which for the "financial" one, which would cost 30 or 35% more than that.

When it is unfolded, exporters consider it

a sanction

because they have to liquidate their dollars for the lowest price and companies,

a

huge

punishment

in the case that they have to pay their debts abroad for a much more expensive dollar.

And in the current crisis situation, everything would be more serious.

Therefore, and as Alberto Fernández stated a few days ago, the exchange strategy will continue to be to

tie the rise in the dollar, devaluing the peso, to inflation.

Miguel Pesce's policy has been to raise the official rate by around

2.7% per month

to prevent it from falling behind, and it would continue to do so despite the fact that in this way it would put a "floor" on inflation for the following month.

"In economics, absolute happiness does not exist," commented an experienced banker who is betting that the update without sudden jumps in the dollar will continue to the letter.

Many have doubts.

Source: clarin

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