The French economy should contract by 8.7% this year and return a little faster than expected to its pre-crisis level, the Banque de France said on Monday in a much less pessimistic forecast than in June.
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While it had previously anticipated a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 10.3% in 2020, "
the shock of the second quarter was less significant than expected
" and "
the rebound suggested by the business surveys on the last few months is stronger,
”says the French central bank in its latest macroeconomic projections.
This forecast is in line with that of INSEE which expects a 9% recession this year, but more optimistic than that of the government, which anticipates a decline in GDP of 11%, even if it plans to revise soon. this digit.
The Banque de France then expects a rebound in GDP of 7.4% in 2021, followed by growth of 3% in 2022. The economy should thus return to its pre-crisis level from the start of 2022, i.e. a little earlier than this. that it anticipated so far, that is to say mid-2022.
At the same time, it also reduced the impact on employment of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 epidemic.
If unemployment will rise well this year, with "
about 800,000
" job cuts, and an unemployment rate that could reach 11.1% in 2021, "
more than 700,000 jobs
" would be recreated in 2021 and 2022.
However, she specifies that this scenario remains subject to major uncertainties due to uncertainties about the evolution of the epidemic, but also to the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.
In August and September, the loss of activity should be brought back to around -5% compared to its pre-crisis level, while the French economy was only turning two-thirds during confinement.
According to the BdF, the automobile industry, accommodation, catering and construction have recovered a little better than expected by business leaders at the start of the summer.
Likewise, household consumption and investment held up better.
It therefore forecasts a 16% increase in GDP in the third quarter, after falling 13.8% in the second.
At the end of the year, the loss of activity would still be between 3.5% and 4% compared to the pre-crisis level.
"
We are entering the phase where activity will continue to grow but no longer at the same rate as that we have seen in recent months,
" said Olivier Garnier, CEO of the Banque de France, during 'a press conference.
