09/24/2020 - 10:59
After the debt swap, the country risk fell from 2,100 to 1,083 basis points.
It was the opportunity for a "new beginning."
But there was
not even a honeymoon
and less than a month after the restructuring is again a headache.
But this Thursday, the JP Morgan indicator that measures the surcharge that Argentina pays for borrowing falls 0.8%, to 1,381 basis points, after
rising to 1,410 basis points
at the start of the day, which represents 30% more since post-trade.
The decline occurred at the same time as a recovery in Argentine stocks on Wall Street and happened after the International Monetary Fund announced that the mission to assess the Argentine economy will begin in October.
Argentine stocks on Wall Street had started with mixed results: some managed to bounce up to 10% and the rest fell with cases of more than 4%.
But after noon, the papers began to fly.
Banco Supervielle, for example, advanced 15%, while BBVA and Macro passed 10%.
Pampa, Loma Negra and the Macro rose 8% and the rest experienced increases between 3 and 5%.
The rate of return on the new bonds had started at 11.5% and even exceeded 15% in some cases.
Since September 4, the date on which the old bonds were exchanged for the new ones, the dollar securities that emerged from the debt swap decreased every day except for just one day.
Thus, according to the analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley, it would be the worst start to an emerging markets restructuring in more than 20 years.
And they continue to give the new NY law bonds before the local opening.
EMBI + already above 1400 bps.
It is clearly a matter of economic policy focus and recurrently reconfirmed negative expectations.
If not surprised by the positive, this can continue to deteriorate.
- Gabriel Caamaño (@EcoLedesma) September 24, 2020
"Clearly it is a matter of focus on economic policy and recurrently reconfirmed negative expectations. If they are not surprised by the positive, this may continue to deteriorate", warned economist Gabriel Caamano on Twitter.
The alternative dollars, which on Wednesday reached a gap of almost 95% with the wholesale dollar, also felt the impact of the IMF: the cash with liquid falls 6%, to $ 139.61 after having touched $ 148 on Wednesday .
Argentines and the dollar: the Government responds with sarasa to the growing distrust of savers
The alternative dollar remains firm at $ 148 while the country risk does not stop rising and distrust grows