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According to researchers, the German labor market will continue to suffer from the consequences of the pandemic for a long time.
The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) determined in its autumn forecast for the current year a corona-related increase in the unemployed of 440,000.
Economic output will shrink by 5.2.
"For the year 2021 we expect that it will drop by 100,000 people. But it is still significantly higher than before the pandemic," the report said.
In the coming year, according to the forecast, economic output could increase again by 3.2 percent, the number of unemployed falling by an average of 100,000.
"The labor market came under massive pressure, but the deterioration remained relatively limited in view of the immense economic shock. The labor market did not plummet because of the stabilization measures," said Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research department "Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyzes".
Hospitality and industry particularly affected
The experts are not yet predicting any recovery effects for the hospitality industry and retail trade in the coming year.
The labor market there will stabilize at the level of 2020, but will not be able to compensate for the losses suffered in the current year.
The same applies to the area of "other services", which includes the organization of sports and cultural events - a loss of 110,000 jobs is forecast for the current year.
According to the IAB forecast, 160,000 jobs will be lost in the manufacturing sector, especially in the automotive industry and its suppliers, and another 60,000 next year.
The IAB researchers, on the other hand, expect employment growth above all in the field of "public service providers, education and health" (190,000 jobs each in both years).
The experts also expect growth in the communications industry, primarily through increasing digitalization and the networking of production and service processes.
Despite the economic risks, the shortage of skilled workers remains a constant topic for companies in Germany.
According to the forecast, the potential of employed persons will shrink by 100,000 this year and by another 50,000 next year.
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