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Electric cars in Concord, California
Photo: Bloomberg / Bloomberg via Getty Images
A loser is certain even before the race has started.
If California forces the switch to electromobility as announced, the oil industry will lose an existential business area.
So far, drivers in the most populous US state have been drawing well over 100 million liters of gasoline every day.
Patrick DeHaan from the price comparison website GasBuddy.com predicts that the gasoline-powered sales ban announced by the governor for 2035 will be "the kiss of death for gasoline and oil".
Because California is now setting the trend when it comes to environmental standards in America.
But who will be the winner of the auto turnaround?
So far, all - sometimes half-hearted - attempts by traditional corporations to attack the top dog Tesla in its home market have remained rather unsuccessful.
80 percent of all new registrations in the USA also paid the shooting star from Palo Alto in the first half of 2020.
Chevrolet follows far behind with around eight percent.
Audi has almost tripled its market share compared to the previous year: from a marginal 1.1 to a marginal 3.11 percent.
Now, however, the cards are being reshuffled: If California implements its petrol ban, then that could also be the starting shot for the hitherto poorly positioned providers to catch up, believes Stephanie Brinley of the information service provider IHS Markit.
Because if the corporations had the prospect of producing more e-cars and finding buyers for them, higher investments might pay off for them.
That could then upset the existing distribution of forces in the coming decade.
"Arms race" in the industry
So far, however, the industry is still operating a niche business in the sunny state on the east coast.
Electric vehicles have a market share of six percent - significantly more than the approximately one and a half percent on average for the whole of America, but light years away from what climate protectionists are striving for.
Governor Gavin Newsom therefore wants to force the new road code in the fifth largest economy in the world brutally.
On the bonnet of a red Mustang Mach-E (starting price 38,000 euros), he signed a document this week that leaves no doubt about his role as a climate leader in the state ravaged by forest fires: In 15 years at the latest, customers at new car dealerships between Crescent City and San Diego can only choose between "zero emissions" vehicles.
The governor wants to forego the approval of the state parliament.
Instead, the government's air protection commission will develop regulatory requirements that will drive climate polluters off the streets.
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Governor Gavin Newsom signed a decree on Wednesday that would stop the country's authorities from registering internal combustion engine cars from 2035
Photo: Daniel Kim / imago images / ZUMA Wire
But that's where the difficulties of implementation begin: California is at odds with the Trump administration, which wants to deprive the state of the right to set its own emission limits.
Whether Newsom can realize its plan therefore depends on the courts - and also on whether Donald Trump or his challenger Joe Biden will be elected to the White House in November.
The legal situation is just one of many unanswered questions, says car analyst Brinley.
One thing is clear so far: "The goal is very aggressive and goes beyond what most automakers have set themselves for 2035."
As long as it is unclear what the mechanics of regulation will look like in detail, it is "difficult for companies themselves to know how they will react to it."
But the California government trusts that the announcement will have the desired effect.
No car manufacturer can afford it without planning the state with a population of 40 million.
There is already an "arms race" in the industry, praised Mary Nichols, the powerful head of the regulatory commission.
The goal of the race: a "zero-emissions vehicle that everyone can afford".
And there has actually been movement in the market recently:
Tesla, which with a market capitalization of $ 380 billion on the stock exchange is worth more than GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen combined, has its usual ambitious plans: The production costs for batteries are to be halved, so that Elon Musk will have a model in three years May offer price of $ 25,000.
The lofty ultimate goal is to sell 20 million vehicles a year - almost double what VW sold in 2019.
For its part, Volkswagen wants to open up the American electronics market with its new "world car", the ID.4 compact SUV.
From 2022, the model will also be built in the factory in Tennessee.
General Motors wants to reinvent itself from scratch and, with boss Mary Barra, is fully committed to electromobility.
The Hummer off-road vehicle is to return as an E version with 1000 hp.
Competitor Ford wants to electrify its popular pickup monster F-150.
Both traditional Detroit companies want to make up for their past e-failures through cooperation with the young start-up stars in the industry.
GM has invested in the electric truck company Nikola, while Ford has invested in Tesla rival Rivian.
In a new study, the investment bank Goldman Sachs assumes that electrification in the US auto market will proceed faster than previously expected.
In the base scenario, it predicts a market share of 25 percent in 2030, which means that the USA would still lag behind Europe.
A privilege of the wealthy
But there are also skeptics.
California has already failed its previous plans for the auto turnaround, warns Brian Maas, head of the Association of New Car Dealers.
He complains that there is a lack of sufficient charging infrastructure in the area state.
And California is already struggling with an overloaded power grid.
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And finally there is the customer: for many Americans, the electric car is simply too expensive.
The "zero-emission car" is a privilege of the wealthy, Maas points out.
Without generous government support, most buyers cannot be convinced of the advantages of e-mobility.
According to a study by the management consultancy McKinsey, Tesla's sales in the US shrank by seven percent in 2019 after the US government's tax subsidies expired.
The Trump administration's planned easing of environmental regulations and lower oil prices could also slow the electric vehicle market.
Even car expert Brinley isn't sure how successful California's new quick-fix strategy will be.
"You can regulate the automakers so that they can only sell e-cars. But there is no mechanism to force consumers to buy them."
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