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What distinguishes a green city from a red one?

According to the traffic light plan - not much

The traffic light plan, according to which various restrictions are imposed as part of the war against the corona plague, divides the various cities into red or green.

But does this division really reflect the reality of morbidity in every city?

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• Corona

• Roni Gamzo

Avichai Snir

Sunday, 27 September 2020, 00:40

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In the video: Home Front Command information video on the traffic light plan (Home Front Command)

I was flipping through the internet, and suddenly I saw the "traffic light" formula of the corona projector Dr. Roni Gimzo. For those who do not know yet, the score of a city is determined according to this formula:

2 + Ln (10000 patients per number) + Ln (squared growth rate ) + 12.5 × (positive rate)

In addition, I read that the score of any city can range from 0 to 10.

For a moment I thought I did not know math, and immediately called my good friend Ronen Bar-El, just to make sure my matriculation exam was not drunk when he gave Lee Ronen passes in adulthood. Ronen reassured me, and told me I was not wrong. So here are some of our conclusions about the formula, in case after the closure, they will decide again to use it to determine which red city. Besides, do not say you did not know why from time to time All sorts of strange results and cities without a large number of patients turn red, while cities with double the number of patients turn green.

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Because the score also consists of the growth rate, which can be zero (if all patients recovered), or infinity (if the number of patients on the previous day was zero), the minimum possible score in this formula is minus infinity, and the maximum possible is infinity plus.

The reported score, between 0 and 10, is determined after "rounding" the score of cities whose score is less than 0 or greater than 10. I understand the logic by rounding the score of a city with a score minus minus something to zero.

But even Ronen has not yet understood why the score of a city with a score of 15 to 10 should be rounded up. In this way, cities whose situation is a complete catastrophe are put together, together with cities whose situation is really not good, but not so terrible.

Eilat can easily become a green city (Photo: shutterstock)

It is not certain that there is a reason for the residents of the red cities to make an effort

The formula will continue to produce surprising results, and very many people will not understand why they are red, while their neighbors are green, and vice versa

2. The score of a city with a small number of patients may be lower than the score of a city with no patients at all.

This sounds absurd, but according to the formula, the score of a city without any patients is 2. The score of a city that had 4 patients per 10,000 people and now has only two patients per 10,000 people is 1.31.

This means that the person who wrote the formula prefers to be in a place where the number of patients is declining over a place where there are no patients.

Ronen and I do not agree with him, but we may be in the minority.

3. The maximum score of a city that had one patient and now has 2 patients is close to 16. That is, a large city with only 2 patients can get a score that will make it bright red.

As Ronen explained to me, the reason is simple - the rate of positives gets quite a high weight.

So if everyone who started to get tested came out positive, the city would automatically turn red.

I lived in Eilat for a while, and from my acquaintance with the residents there, I guess that is why Eilat turned red so quickly, even though the number of patients was quite small.

This happened because people in Eilat make a living from tourism and have no income if they sit at home, so the only ones who are going to be tested are those who feel really bad.

If the mayor of Eilat had employed someone who understood mathematics, he could have left Eilat in the green zone easily.

All he had to do was send all the healthy residents to be tested.

The rate of positives would drop, and Eilat would be green and happy again.

But it is impossible to mislead everyone all the time: after the story of Eilat, other mayors understood what they needed to do to avoid living in a red city.

The result?

The test stations were flooded with such a large number of healthy people that the labs could not keep up.

4. Big cities get relief.

In this formula, the number of patients is calculated per 10,000 patients.

This means that one patient in a locality with 500 residents affects the index as 6 patients in a locality the size of Bnei Brak.

In addition, the greater the number of patients, the lower the reported infection rate: if there is only one patient, one more patient is a 100 percent increase.

If there are 1000 patients in the city, another patient is an increase of 0.1%.

This means that if a high school student sticks 10 children in his capsule, a town with 10,000 residents that was hitherto free of patients will turn a bright red, while in a big city it will not affect the color at all.

5. The fact that a goat cannot get a score higher than 10, means that it is not at all worthwhile for residents of red cities to make an effort to improve the score.

Because there is a circle, when residents are reported that the score of their city is 10, the real score is probably higher than 10. Therefore, even if they data will improve a bit, the score will still remain 10. Ronen once taught me that if there is no reason to make an effort, do not make an effort.

Instead, investors are making efforts in more productive places - pressuring the prime minister not to close their city.

This usually works much faster than lowering the number of patients in the locality.

So it's not pleasant for me and Ronen to say, but if anyone thinks this formula will bring the solution to Corona in the days after the closure, we do not think it will happen.

Instead, what will happen is that the formula will continue to produce surprising results, and very many people will not understand why they are red, while their neighbors are green, and vice versa.

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