Mary Church
09/27/2020 - 21:43
Clarín.com
Economy
The past week was full of crosses and rumors of changes in the Cabinet that included even
presentations of the resignations of an official.
The agitation that the financial market experienced after the reinforcement of the stocks was also felt inside the Government.
On the one hand, within the economic cabinet there was the feeling that the fight between the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, and the president of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce,
was not settled, after the decision to strengthen the exchange rate.
The decision that was adopted was defended by the BCRA and resisted by Guzmán, who advocated more for a possible split in the exchange market.
But even so, the market reaction, expected for the first days but which persisted until Friday, which continues to show a negative reaction,
led to nervousness and crosses
that also included the ANSeS in charge of María Fernanda Raverta.
Furthermore,
Pesce targeted the ANSeS official and for that fact was under attack.
Raverta belongs to La Cámpora and Pesce belongs to Alberto Fernández's inner circle.
With heated spirits, Alberto Fernández received a good part of the economic team on Saturday in the Olivos presidential office to smooth things over, mediate between the main referents, align concepts and define relevant announcements for export, among others that the Government is preparing.
At 6 pm, while the rain on Saturday gave a truce and the sun was rising, the meeting was held that was attended, in addition to Guzmán and Pesce, by the Chief of Staff, Santiago Cafiero;
the Vice Chief of Cabinet, Cecilia Todesca;
the Minister of Productive Development, Matías Kulfas;
the Minister of Foreign Relations, Felipe Solá;
and the Secretary for Strategic Affairs of the Presidency, Gustavo Béliz.
The meeting was extensive, with exchanges that included the
monetary, exchange and fiscal level.
The most relevant thing that was worked on was an announcement for agriculture (also mining and the energy sector) to liquidate foreign exchange and enter the desired dollars to international reserves, as
Clarín was
able to reconstruct
.
"What is sought is to
provide rules of the game that prevent these sectors from being damaged by the scheme of exchange regulations
," specified official sources.
One possibility that was being studied was to partially modify the current withholding scheme, with incentives to generate additional exports, precisely one of the axes of the economic recovery for next year as stated in the 2021 Budget.
It is that in the Government they know that with the value of the financial dollars above $ 140, the solidarity in $ 132 and the official dollar that borders $ 80, the exchange rate that soy exporters receive is
around $ 50, once 33% of the withholdings are applied.
Official sources confided to this newspaper that of the soybean harvest of 49 million tons for the 2019 campaign,
little more than half
has
been sold: specifically, 64%.
In addition, the amount that has already been sold but still has no price is very high.
“The producers delivered 'to fix' and they still haven't.
That percentage with a price not yet set exceeds previous harvests, "they said from another sector of the Government.
With all this, they calculate in the official corridors the amount of dollars that could still enter the country during 2020: with the current sales rhythm, until the end of the year,
some US $ 7.2 billion
remains to be
settled.
In addition to measures to encourage liquidation, this week the Compensation Fund for the agricultural sector will also be announced, a decision that, although it was already included in the Law of Social Solidarity and Productive Reactivation, its application was delayed.
It implies refund of withholdings for soy producers of up to 1,000 tons.
With regard to the purely monetary aspect, and after criticism in the communication of the latest measures, at the meeting on Saturday in Olivos it was established that the Central Bank will communicate
"very specifically how monetary policy is going to be handled."
It will be specified through a statement after the Board meeting, which takes place on Thursdays at the monetary authority, it was specified.
