Taxes: why the 45 billion euros of reduction posted by the government are overestimated

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On the occasion of the presentation of the 2021 budget, the government presented us with its figures for the reductions in compulsory levies since the start of the five-year period: 45 billion euros of decrease, including 21.9 billion on households and 23.2 billion. euros on companies.

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However, between 2017 and 2021, in value, compulsory levies have not fallen at all.

The trend is even increasing, with an increase of 17.4 billion euros.

In 2017, the total revenue from compulsory levies was 1037 billion euros, in 2021 it will be 1054 billion.

How is it possible ?

In reality, the "

" decided by the government are completely erased by the specific dynamics of tax revenues, what is called the "

", linked in part to growth, but also to decisions that are based on see less (revaluation of cadastral bases for local taxes, shift from income tax by way of roll to withholding tax, etc.).

If we look at the evolution between 2018 and 2021 this time, the recorded decrease represents only -3.2 billion euros, it is very little (1057.4 billion in 2018 against 1054.2 billion in 2021) .

These elements make it possible to understand why, while the tax cuts seem very significant, even massive, taxpayers generally feel them very little: other increases are sometimes at work on the same taxes or other very similar ones. .

In addition, the government's costing does not take into account the effect of the switch between the CICE and the reductions in charges, which increases corporate tax revenue by nearly 4 billion euros.

As a result, despite the crisis and the drop in its rate, corporate income tax revenue fell from 35.7 billion in 2017 to 37.8 billion in 2021. Similarly, income tax revenue of households goes from 73 billion in 2017 to 75 billion in 2021 even though income tax is supposed to have fallen by 5 billion euros in 2020. That is falling but it pays more.

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In reality, the only justice of the peace is the rate of compulsory levies in relation to GDP, expected at 44.8% in 2021 including tax credits.

But the rate of compulsory levies in relation to GDP could well prove to be higher.

Anyway, the 45 billion euros in tax cuts posted by the government are necessarily oversold, the cuts being overvalued and the increases being undervalued, spending not being, opposite, not at all. contained.

Too bad the government figures are not more precise at this stage to shed light on this subject.

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