02/10/2020 - 22:35
Clarín.com
Economy
Following the announcements on Thursday by Martín Guzmán and Miguel Pesce, the country continued to lose reserves.
This Friday the
Central Bank sold about US $ 150 million
to support the price of the dollar according to market estimates.
According to
government
sources
and the
bank itself,
the sale would have been less, of US $ 110 million.
Only a quarter of that figure would have been per dollar savings.
In the monetary authority they explain by these hours that the sale of dollars for hoarding is equivalent to a quarter of what had been recorded.
These calculations are in line with what the private banks themselves described yesterday.
On the first day of the US $ 200 quota in October (Thursday), a large number of people wanted to buy savings dollars but could not close the operation.
In some entities, only 25% managed to do so.
“75% of operations were rejected for various reasons.
The volume of the purchase attempt was quite significant (not the final result) compared to the previous month ”
, they explain in an entity.
Despite the sale of dollars by the Central Bank, the wholesale exchange rate rose 70 cents as announced the previous day by the monetary authority, which meant a change in strategy: the bank explained on Thursday that it will stop sliding the rate of change at a rate that according to the entity itself was predictable and typical of a
crawling peg
regime
(although formally the bank never mentioned that it had adopted this strategy), for a strategy in which it will seek to provide more volatility to the exchange rate .
The
wholesale dollar
yesterday rose just less than 1% and the
retail
1.64%, going from $ 80.80 to $ 82.44.
This means that if you add 30% of the PAIS tax plus 35% of the income tax advance, it reaches $ 136, three pesos more.
The
blue
dollar
closed at $ 150, up $ 3.
The market expects that in the next few days the bank will continue to be active in foreign exchange intervention to add
“volatility”
to the exchange rate and remove certainty from the price of the dollar.
Yesterday several operators pointed out that the Central Bank
sold bonds in dollars
to lower the implicit price of the currency in cash with settlement (to turn to accounts abroad).
The monetary authority had entered the swap that Guzmán launched and the minister himself, in a press conference a month ago, pointed out that the bank now had
"fire power"
to intervene in the exchange market.
On Friday the Central Bank denied that it was the authority who sold those bonds.
The Anses was consulted but did not respond.
“Guzmán closed a successful debt deal to lower the average coupon from 7.5-8%. They went out to sell bonds at a 15% rate, which is kept by the private sector, increasing the risk of refinancing in the future. Everything to lower the dollar $ 4 and that on Monday it will rise again. Insane, ”
Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, economist at the Eco Go study, tweeted yesterday.
The measures adopted by the Government on
Thursday
, basically a reduction in withholdings on soybeans, incentives for mining, construction and exports, raising rates and releasing the dollar, consisted of a package to stop the outflow of reserves after two weeks ago The Central Bank put more restrictions on the saving dollar and foreign exchange for companies that were paying off debt, while Guzmán presented the Budget project in parallel.
“What those measures of a couple of weeks ago caused, and immediately, was a new blow on the main market indicators.
The country risk, despite the restructuring, climbed 231 bps and the Merval in CCL dollars fell 17%
.
Sovereign dollar bonds also suffered.
The price of Global 2030, for example, suffered a loss of 17% in just 15 days ”
, reviewed a report by GMA Capital.
"In less than two weeks, US $ 1,010 million flew, which implies an average output of US $ 100 million per day
.
"
Guzmán and Pesce
got to work in recent weeks on new measures.
On Thursday the Minister of Economy announced a package aimed at encouraging a greater supply of foreign exchange and Pesce one that combined a new exchange strategy with an increase in interest rates.
"We believe that
they are very late after the deterioration of expectations
and that they do not have the necessary power to seduce the relevant players
,
" they
said in GMA Capital.
"It raises doubts that the different initiatives can modify the exchange rate imbalance, since the underlying sources of concern are not being cleared, and hence they can only act as 'buffers'
, said the economist Gustavo Ber, who points out that the mission of the
International Monetary Fund
that plans to visit Argentina in the coming days, may
"provide greater predictability and thus calm the current uncertain context
."
Fernando Marull, for his part, yesterday provided another piece of information.
“The BCRA lost by its sales of dollar futures, almost $ 4,000 million today.
But they are pesos.
Another source of monetary issue is added ”
.
Yesterday from the monetary authority they clarified that the cereal and oil companies have not yet liquidated because
the rules were not signed
and that this is expected to happen in the next few hours.
Thus, on Monday the dollars would enter.
For his part, Guzmán held a meeting via video call with international investment funds that participated in the debt restructuring process.
Look also
Soy dollars and the return of the crack between oil producers and ruralistas
Miguel Pesce released a little the price of the dollar and raised the rates to stop a bicycle of importers and exporters
