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With the blue dollar at $ 155, the exchange gap reaches 100% and is the highest in the last 31 years

2020-10-08T16:18:02.802Z


This jump hits on exports, expectations and, to a lesser extent, on prices.Annabella quiroga 10/08/2020 13:04 Clarín.com Economy Updated 10/08/2020 13:04 With the blue dollar at $ 155, the gap with the wholesale dollar is 100%. The last time the gap was at this level was in mid-1989 , when there was also a stocks, but in addition, there was a doubling of the exchange rate and hyperinflation. This Thursday, the wholesale dollar stands at $ 77.11, with the retail averag


Annabella quiroga

10/08/2020 13:04

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 10/08/2020 13:04

With the blue dollar at $ 155, the gap with the wholesale dollar is 100%.

The last time the gap was at this level was

in mid-1989

, when there was also a stocks, but in addition, there was a doubling of the exchange rate and hyperinflation.

This Thursday, the wholesale dollar stands at

$ 77.11,

with the retail averaging $ 82.75 and the "solidarity" at $ 137, with taxes and surcharges.

Despite what the Government expected, with the reloaded stocks and the new measures ordered by the Central Bank, the gap continued to grow.

Thus, when reaching 100%, it left behind the

previous peak

, which had been registered in 2014, when, also with a stocks in between, it had reached 89%.

The current 100% gap is not an absolute record.

In the 70s, Rodrigazo and the political crisis in between,

reached 350%.

Digging into the reasons why the gap is growing and finding reference only 30 years ago, in the midst of a crisis much more dramatic than the current one, Fernando Marull, director of FMyA, focuses on the

fiscal deficit

.

"This year we are going to a red of 8.3%. The last time the deficit was at that level was precisely in 1989."

"In 1989 the 100% gap was the end of a stage. We came from a lost decade at the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate level, with stabilization plans that failed and that finally ended in convertibility," he says.

Now the situation is not so dramatic, but Marull points out that the current gap "

is reflecting the impact of the fiscal and monetary excesses

that finance the deficit. They are going somewhere."

What is the impact of the gap on the real economy?

For Marull, "the gap disrupts the entire exchange operation. Argentina needs dollars and the gap causes exporters not to want to sell. On the demand side - where importers, savers and those with dollar debts are located - it generates expectations. devaluation high. Historically,

whenever the gap was closed, the one who rose was the official one.

It never happened that the gap ended because the informal one went down. "

For Jorge Neyro, from the ACM consulting firm, "the bottom of the problem is the shortage of relative dollars that the country needs to import and to store up.

The gap discourages exports in the long term

."

"The gap somehow marks the level of devaluation that may exist in the future. It shows that the market is willing to pay a dollar today, far removed from the official one," reinforces Neyro.

"The current level between the solidarity and the blue dollar is

what the market expects of devaluation

in the medium term."

Although the two economists emphasize that the gap does not fully affect inflation, Neyro points out that "the greater the imported or tradable component they have impacts on prices. If I have financial debts abroad and to pay they send me to buy dollars in cash with liqui -at $ 151-, part of my financial costs at some point can be valued at that dollar and

that part is transferred to prices

".

For this reason, regarding prices "little by little the gap is transformed into a signal. According to the expectations of devaluation that exist, it may be reasonable to adjust prices as a precautionary measure."

For Marull "the gap does not have a direct impact on prices, but it

forms expectations

and is giving signals to economic agents."

Can the gap grow beyond this 100%?

Marull says that today the stocks work "like

a 12 Gate in reverse: everyone wants to enter. 

The signs of economic rationality are not there yet. In a pessimistic scenario, the gap may continue to rise."

AQ

Look also

The Government has few options left: a controlled jump in the dollar or unfold

The Government made $ 136,000 million with a bond in pesos tied to the official exchange rate

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2020-10-08

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