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Port of Dover: The transport and logistics sectors are falling significantly
Photo: Ray Tang / DPA
When is it actually coming, this Brexit?
The question might be asked who is not following the negotiations on Britain's exit from the European Union too closely.
The United Kingdom officially left the EU at the end of January.
But there will be a transition phase until the end of the year, during which both sides are negotiating their future relations - and so far there has been little progress.
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In the German economy, on the other hand, the Brexit referendum of June 2016 has long since provided facts.
The sales and exports of German companies on the island have since declined in most industries, the losses in some cases significant.
That shows a study by the auditing company Deloitte, which will be published on Tuesday.
It examined a total of 190 companies with headquarters in Germany that employ at least 100 people in British subsidiaries.
The economic ties are therefore still great.
The companies surveyed employ around 375,000 people in the United Kingdom and earn an average of every fourteenth euro there.
The auto industry alone has a turnover of almost 50 billion, and the island remains an important market for the German financial sector and the transport and logistics sector.
But in 2015, the last year before the referendum, companies still earned every eleventh euro in Great Britain.
Since then, sales have fallen by an average of twelve percent.
The decline was strongest in banks and insurance companies, for which the financial center of London has so far been of great importance.
Exports to Great Britain shrank by an average of six percent, in the auto industry they even fell by a quarter.
For comparison: Overall, German exports rose by eleven percent in the same period.
Wholesaling and retailing alone developed against the trend, with sales increasing by almost three billion euros.
"On the one hand, this is due to discounters, who also benefit from the uncertainty," says Alexander Börsch, chief economist at Deloitte.
Aldi and Lidl have significantly increased their market share - also because the British fear rising food prices in the face of Brexit.
On the other hand, according to Börsch, online retailers were also able to expand their businesses in Great Britain.
Most of the industries examined, however, earn less on the UK market than they did a few years ago.
This is primarily due to the exchange rate of the pound, which has fallen by around 15 percent against the euro since the exit referendum.
The exports of goods have fallen "in tandem with the pound rate", says Börsch.
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So far, however, there can be no question of a flight by German companies, because the number of local employees has remained constant compared to 2015.
This is probably also due to the still great uncertainty about future trade relations.
"The companies don't know exactly what the world will look like in 2021. That is why strategic decisions are being postponed", suspects Börsch.
For the time being: "The connections will not be cut."
However, falling sales and exports have already made UK business less important for many companies.
The share of sales there in total business fell from 9.1 to 7.3 percent.
"We see a relative loss of importance," says Börsch.
The decline is particularly strong in the transport and logistics industry, which fears chaotic conditions at the port of Dover and other bottlenecks after Brexit.
Between many declines, there is also a clear plus sign in German-British trade relations: In contrast to goods exports (minus twelve percent), services have increased by ten percent.
According to the study, behind this is a general trend in world trade towards more digital services.
"The question is, however, whether it can continue like this," says Börsch.
Should there be a hard Brexit without an agreement, at least the rules of the World Trade Organization would apply to goods exports.
However, there are no binding requirements for the service sector.
The British should be much more worried than the Germans: While services account for only 17 percent of German exports, in Great Britain it is almost 45 percent.
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