Gustavo Bazzan
10/21/2020 8:26 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/21/2020 8:26 PM
The relationship between the Minister of Economy
Martín Guzmán
and the president of the Central Bank,
Miguel Pesce,
is increasingly strained.
The Economy statement on Monday, punctually criticizing the negative effect that the BCRA circular of September 15 had had on the foreign exchange market - the one that restricted the operation "dollar counted with settlement" - made it clear that
the coexistence of both officials is harder every time.
From the Central Bank they do not want to talk about the changes decided between the Economy and the National Securities Commission.
But at the bottom they stand out that with restrictions or without restrictions,
the cash with liquid continued to rise
.
Likewise, this week's decline (which followed the flexibility of the operation that reopened the doors to foreign investors) was driven by the decision of the Economy to go on the market with a new issuance of
debt in dollars
, for 750 million, For which you will pay a rate that
today would be between 15 and 16% per year.
The quick and expected reading of the market is that if the quantity of bonds in circulation is going to increase, when
there is no demand for those papers
, the prices must necessarily fall.
The fact that there is no demand is demonstrated by the persistent fall in the prices of the bonds since the day after their debut in the market.
Moreover, it is assumed that if the bonds are issued
to provide an outlet for foreign funds
that today have pesos in their possession, they will do nothing other than go out and sell them in the secondary market.
For the simple reason that they
want dollars, not Argentine debt papers.
The reading of the Economy is that the Central should be more active in using the
“fire power”
that they gave it when with the delivery of negotiable debt securities in the secondary market.
Those dollar papers, the market interpreted, would be used to
control bond prices
and, as Guzmán wanted, to
“stabilize the gap”
between dollars, an initial step before attempting to close it.
But the bond interventions have not been massive.
Balance is difficult
.
The implicit exchange rate that arises from bond operations can be reduced by lowering the price of bonds in pesos (selling) or by raising the price of bonds in dollars (buying).
Some of this was seen this Wednesday: the
AL30 in pesos
was rising close to 2% and ended up falling 1.6%, due to the sustained sales, it is presumed, of some public body.
With the decline in the peso bond, the CCL dollar and the MEP reduced the daily rise from 3 to 1%.
These interventions are not without a marginal effect, which can hardly break the market trend.
It will not be this way that the alternative dollar stabilizes.
Look also
For more subsidies, IFE and ATP, the fiscal deficit was $ 167,182 million
The blue rose to $ 183 and financial dollars continued to rise despite the new measures
