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Extension of the curfew: the state bill increases by 2 billion euros

2020-10-23T17:58:27.714Z


While 38 additional departments and Polynesia are affected by the curfew from 9 p.m. this Friday midnight, the economy


The presidential “whatever the cost” of last March continues to be the expression of rigor in the ministries, when it comes to protecting the French from the second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.

But, while Jean Castex, the Prime Minister, announced this Thursday a curfew in 38 additional departments as well as in Polynesia, senior officials of the Ministry of Finance have already taken out their calculators.

And Bercy knows, quite precisely, what the extension of support measures to all the departments concerned will cost.

A little over two billion euros!

The note is all the more onerous since the measures had recently been reinforced (expansion of the solidarity fund, extension of the duration of access to loans guaranteed by the State, increase in support for partial unemployment) during the implementation of the curfew in its initial perimeter, mid-October.

Q3 rebound is just a memory

So much for deadweight loss.

But in turn, this curfew now applied to 54 departments, an overseas territory and 46 million French in total, will also have deleterious consequences on the economy.

All the indicators threaten to turn red, and the strong rebound in GDP in the third quarter, driven by deconfinement, seems a distant memory ...

The relapse of the French economy, already feared with the first curfew measures, is now more and more likely.

These measures "will weigh on the economy", warned this Friday on Europe 1, Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, citing the possibility of "having a negative growth figure" in the fourth quarter.

On the front line: the hotel and catering, events, leisure and cultural sectors, already severely hit by the crisis.

“The professionals had one knee on the ground, but there, everyone will soon be knocked out, laments Marcel Benezet, president of cafes, bars, breweries at the National Group of Independents, contacted by phone.

My cell phone rings all the time, our members are in despair.

"Same distress on the side of the Confederation of small and medium-sized enterprises (CPME), for which this aid is" insufficient and cannot be sufficient to cover all the economic losses generated by a government decision.

"

Avoid re-containment at all costs, even local

The duration of the curfew has been set at six weeks - "Six weeks of apnea", rants the boss of a Hauts-de-Seine brewery - for now.

"If, beyond, the measures were to continue, we would recharge the devices," promised Bruno Le Maire on Friday, ensuring that the State would continue to help companies and employees throughout the duration of the epidemic.

But the worst is never certain.

On the government side, the hypothesis of local re-containment is now on the table in the event of a worsening of the epidemic.

The executive, who knows the measures will only take effect in two to three weeks, hopes to escape it at this stage.

As he hopes to cut the catastrophic scenario of a general reconfinement… like the one Ireland has just put in place.

There, the overall score would literally fly away.

Rent and paid vacation, the nightmare of small bosses

This is the hot file, at the top of the pile on the desk of Alain Griset, the minister in charge of VSE-SMEs.

The subject of rents runs "an imminent risk on the sustainability of our companies," says a member of the U2P, the Union of local businesses.

A crisis meeting earlier this week between Alain Griset and representatives of donor federations failed to provide a solution.

Another meeting is to be held next week: "The track of a tax credit for donors is being studied, like other solutions", we explain to Bercy.

If the large real estate companies have made efforts, "some small landlords can do nothing, the rent is part of their retirement, or they need it to repay a loan," points out a senior official.

“We must find a short-term and long-term solution, insists Marcel Benezet, president of cafes, bars, breweries at the National Group of Independents.

Because the premises which were worth 100 are only worth 50: the wisest thing would be to renegotiate the price of commercial leases for the next three years ”.

Another hot issue: paid leave for partial unemployment employees.

"We know that it is a time bomb for many small bosses", we recognize in Bercy, in reference to the fact that employees in partial unemployment generate days of paid leave.

There again, the representatives of the State are tearing their hair out, with no track to defuse the bomb, for the moment.

Source: leparis

All business articles on 2020-10-23

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