Daniel Fernandez Canedo
10/24/2020 1:14 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 10/24/2020 1:16 PM
The Minister of Economy was emphatic after the dollar "blue" touched $ 190 and the exchange gap exceeded 130%:
"there will be no devaluation
.
"
Martín Guzmán thus ratified the policy of updating the value of the official dollar with inflation (the wholesaler closed at $ 78.10) supported by the trade surplus (US $ 11,568 million in nine months), in the US $ 41,000 million of reserves - of which US $ 12,000 million are embedded deposits — and in the control of capital, the well-known
exchange stocks
.
Thus, the minister played his boldest card in the face of an exchange market that has been betting on devaluation in a climate of uncertainty and to which he opposed
the promise of a three-year fiscal plan
to add predictability.
In that sense, in a dialogue with
Radio con Vos
, he assured that the core of the agreement that he is negotiating with the IMF to obtain a loan that allows him to face the maturities of 2022-2023 with that body must have the approval of Congress.
The minister's message was followed by a
joint
"suggestion"
from the Central Bank and the Securities Commission to stock traders and banks not to trade securities for one day.
A shot in the dollar "counted with liquidation" a few minutes after Guzmán's words would have been very hard.
Faced with the market paralysis, the CCL fell 4.9%, oscillating the last business day of the week at $ 172.21.
Guzmán, although with forceps and tightening,
passed the first test
and the question of many operators is why he will manage to stabilize the market if there were only words on Friday.
Traders risked a logical response: Guzmán
would have to resign
if the dollar made a significant jump in the next few weeks.
His fate would be played and the Government would leave on the way the good dialogue with the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, which the minister knew how to cement.
But, in addition, the need not to apply a strong devaluation of the peso is marked by fire in the president
Alberto Fernandez
and all his cabinet.
A strong devaluation, in a context of mistrust and uncertainty, would have an accelerated transfer to prices and, therefore, would trigger the fall in real wages and the increase in poverty.
There are two points on which the minister and the head of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce, fully agree:
avoiding a
strong
devaluation
and
not touching people's deposits in dollars
.
With these two certainties, and although the Government does not show the possibility of obtaining dollars to strengthen the Central's reserves, the short-term exchange horizon could clear a bit.
The minister also spoke that he would obtain financing with the sale of
bonds for US $ 750 million
(they are known as Pimco bonds because they would allow that investment fund to leave Argentina) that although they are questioned by the political class, by being the dollarization of a debt in pesos, it could decrease the demand for
dollarized securities
.
Among the assets of the Government is the sharp reduction in the sale of foreign currency due to the greater restrictions to access the quota of US $ 200 per month.
With the tightening of the stocks,
that trickle would drop to US $ 200 million this month
, after representing US $ 800 million in August.
But the celebration about the closing of the stocks is not enough, because the Government has not yet achieved the key result to stop any exchange run, which is nothing other than the ability to earn dollars.
The market knows that the Central is
scratching
the bottom of the can
in terms of currency, and had been betting decisively on a more or less strong devaluation.
The increase in imports in September (3.1%) after 24 months of decline and in the midst of a recession as important as the one in Argentina was another evidence of the eagerness of economic agents to place pesos on valued products to the official dollar, which became a relatively cheap good.
Will Guzmán be able to lower the exchange rate gap by insisting that there will not be a strong devaluation of the peso?
His position is at stake
and we will have to wait to see if the market gives him a break, since the distrust of the government's political framework has no signs of dissipating.
LGP