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The hard data of the economic recession that the dollar crisis cannot cover

2020-10-24T21:53:51.549Z


The data managed by the Government itself speak of the depth of the recession that economic activity is going through. And the difficulties of leaving her behind.


Alcadio Oña

10/24/2020 4:58 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 10/24/2020 4:58 PM

Talking about a drop in real turnover greater than 90% is like talking about the

bottom of the pot

, almost the same as saying that nothing is sold or directly equal to saying that nothing is sold at all.

Mix of Covid-19 and the method that the Government applied to face it, in that ultra precarious situation there are still

12.3% of the companies

, which represents an improvement if you want modest although for some it improves in the end, against the average drop of 25.9% that occurred in April.

That is, when one in four companies faltered.

Direct, the conclusion of those who have done the survey affirms: "The activity as a whole is still

considerably below the prendemic levels

".

Although quite obvious, the comment hits the official discourse that, more and more vigorously, rattles with the return of economic activity to the records prior to this endless quarantine that goes through

8 quarantines.

Now less distant from the government's proclamation, what follows is based on official figures on

electricity consumption

and tells that in September industrial activity left behind seven months of unbridled decline and that, furthermore, it would already "be operating at close levels to those of the prepandemic ".

In truth, the latest data from the same official source shows a very different film: they indicate a drop of 8.1% in October compared to the week before social, preventive and compulsory isolation and 23.4% compared to October of last year.

Nothing that matches the words "close levels".

Finally, where do these things come from ?: they come from nothing less than an organization that depends on the Ministry of Productive Development, the

Center for Production Studies (CEP).

And there is more for this newsletter on the impact of the quarantine on the real economy:

- Back to the percentage of companies shaken by the collapse of the real billing declared before the AFIP, sunk in the fifth basement we find accommodation, that is, the

hotel industry

, with a record that in August included 64.9% of the companies;

followed by 32%, 8% for

gastronomy, or bars and restaurants

, and 26% for

construction

.

In industry, the pressure reaches 7.8% of factories and in commerce 5.7% of establishments, of course both sectors come from an April with holes of 29 and 23.6% respectively.

- Right there, in that ranking of victims,

Jujuy and Tierra del Fuego

are today the provinces most affected by the drop in sales that generated, above all, the very recent outbreaks of Covid-19.

The weight of agribusiness explains that

Santa Fe, Misiones and Entre Ríos are

among the least affected.

And already within that huge and varied conglomerate that is the AMBA, we have that during April, the worst moment of the pandemic, a third of the companies of the Conurbano and the City of Buenos Aires were hit by the shock;

only recession effect, in February the shortage was limited to 7%.

- Regarding how

industrial production is

in its own skid, a CEP index locates the bottom of the curve between mid-March and mid-April: it says a decline of 40%, no less.

And it says in fact that out of a list of 24 developed and underdeveloped countries, only the super-complicated India and Italy scored worse than ours.

- A similar song sounds this year when some GDP of the region is projected:

Argentina's will fall more or considerably more than those of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico.

Everywhere you look, at work it is obvious that, measured as a whole, economic activity is still well below the numbers it recorded in the months prior to the pandemic-quarantine combo.

Worse still: it is very far from numbers that are the least similar to a pinturita and that square, round, with those of a country submerged in a

long recessive process.

The economic estimator for August that INDEC released these days also speaks of this table.

From a serve, he

says a drop of 11.6% against August 2019 and 12.5% ​​since January

and also sings 27 of the last 29 months down the ravine.

On top of this broken structure, which is also a sample of key variables that are notoriously misaligned, there is a

currency crisis as deep as it is endless and until now ungovernable.

Two strong problems that are mutually reinforcing and a crisis upon another crisis.

Martín Guzmán

said

, reassuringly: "We have a very high exchange rate gap, but there is also a circumstance in which we have a trade surplus, there are no short-term external debt payments and we have 41 billion dollars in the Central Bank. There will be no devaluation. "

Not so much not so little, or actually quite a bit.

More than very high, the gap between the blue dollar and the official exchange rate is impressive:

150% sings, which, in a low raid, is already five times the 29% at the beginning of this year.

The

trade surplus

accumulated US $ 11,562 million between January and September and exceeded by 2,065 million the one recorded in the same period of 2019. It is on its way to close the year at around

US $ 15,000 million

, but not everything is pure productive profit but a pure fall in imports: 21% so far in 2020 the INDEC accounts report.

And the big bet on exports for now says 12.6% negative, that is, less than nothing.

Finally, the mess with the reserves of US $ 41,000 million, which to begin with are gross and not net or liquid.

According to the consulting firm LCG, discounting, among other things, the reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits of savers, the China swap-loan and gold holdings, the assets of

"quick availability"

turn around and remain at less than 600 million dollars. .

Other studies warn that the Central Bank has begun to use reserve requirements, as it did in 2015, at the end of Cristina Kirchner's second term.

There is, of course, a big difference:

Alberto Fernández still has three long years of government to go.

It is difficult to find how Minister Guzmán can transmit tranquility, when

distrust, uncertainty, certain mismanagement and the obvious attempt to step on as much dollar as possible are in command.

And when the rationing of imports is becoming more and more noticeable, on the right or on the left.

Advice from consultants, in this unpredictable day-to-day economy: "Take care of the box; make stock and sell when the profit is strong and safe; do not risk money on investments and, definitely, take care of the health of the business".

Delights of this scarcely delicious Argentina, the K government

hastens an agreement with the Monetary Fund

like someone looking there for a lifeline.

And the IMF is asking for something that Alberto F. rejects, because he does not have it:

an economic plan,

a road map stating where he wants to go, with what and for what.

No matter how friendly with Guzmán she is or is shown, it does not seem very likely that Kristalina Georgieva intends to step on the accelerator.

Close to Fernández himself they handle the hypothesis that the IMF will wait to know who the new president of the United States is before moving the bishops, that is, if it will be Donald Trump or Joe Biden who will lower the line from a decisive place in the body's board .

According to the North American calendar, at the beginning of January, when the counting of the voters' votes has concluded, it will be definitively known who has been the winner.

If nothing changes, we will have to keep pushing this rickety ship until then.

Or, as they say in the Government,

until March-April, when the dollars of the always blessed soy start to come in.

Final with a somewhat insidious question: will the social and labor plans created to face the Covid-19 be dismantled, starting with the IFE and the ATP, as the 2021 Budget says and is included in a game where $ 473,000 million are saved?

An antecedent: the adjustment that Ecuador agreed with the IMF.

Look also

In September, due to more imports and fewer exports, the trade surplus was reduced by more than US $ 1.1 billion

Martín Guzmán was not the only minister who said he was not going to devalue

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2020-10-24

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