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Why there are no conservative crisis managers

2020-10-25T16:32:51.704Z


The world has not been as unsafe for generations as it is today. Actually, these are times for moderate conservatives. But they are hardly visible in many countries.


Icon: enlarge

Boris Johnson (left) and Donald Trump (in September 2019)

Photo: Saul Loeb / afp

To govern means first and foremost to be able to manage the unexpected that occurs in some way during each term of office.

Stabilizing a society in times of great uncertainty is the most important function of the state and its management staff.

When John F. Kennedy was elected US President in 1960, it was not foreseeable that the Cuban Missile Crisis two and a half years later would bring the world to the brink of nuclear war.

When Helmut Kohl was re-elected as Federal Chancellor in 1987, the fall of the Wall and the implosion of the Eastern Bloc were out of sight.

When Angela Merkel was confirmed in office for the third time in 2018, we could hardly imagine a deadly pandemic.

In the face of the unexpected, you have all acted prudently, sensibly and well advised.

One does not have to agree with their other politics and with them as persons.

But you have to let them know that they were - and are - able to manage crises.

The wave of populism in recent years has brought a different type of politician to the top of the state: people who produce crises themselves - and fail in the face of the unexpected.

Donald Trump plunged the USA into senseless trade wars, canceled the global climate agreement and the nuclear deal with Iran, disturbed international partners and fueled ideological and racist conflicts in his country.

Boris Johnson was one of the Brexit champions and now, as prime minister, is still playing at the last minute with a self-damaging no-deal exit from the domestic market.

Jair Bolsonaro flirted with a return to military dictatorship in Brazil.

None of you have shown a convincing figure in managing the corona crisis, to put it cautiously.

The real task of a state is to pacify societies and to help stabilize the confusing international environment.

Populists in power do the opposite.

They produce instability and insecurity - and thus undermine the legitimacy and credibility of the state and its institutions.

The US presidential election could become a global signal, depending on the outcome: for a further strengthening of populism or for a return to a more technocratic style of government - for a further erosion of Western democracy or for its ability to correct itself.

About green swans and black sheep

The world has not been as unsafe for generations as it is today.

Unpredictable events occur with increasing frequency and intensity, as various indicators show.

In a study that has just been published by our DoCMA research center in Dortmund, we show how the nature of uncertainty has changed: In the past decade, it was primarily political developments that repeatedly shockingly changed the framework conditions for business and society.

To the author

Photo: 

Institute for Journalism, TU Dortmund

Henrik Müller

is professor for economic journalism at the Technical University of Dortmund.

Before that, the graduate economist worked as deputy editor-in-chief of manager magazin.

In addition, Müller is the author of numerous books on economic and monetary issues.

Every week he gives a pointed outlook on the most important economic events of the week for SPIEGEL.

However, we have now become aware of new risks that originate outside of politics and that we call "real exogenous uncertainty".

The corona pandemic falls into this category, but also unforeseen events caused by climate change.

The Bank for International Settlements speaks of "green swan events" and means serious crises of international extent that are likely to occur more frequently in the future.

The more states will be called upon to cushion these shocks - and effectively contain uncertainty instead of creating even more uncertainty through erratic political reactions.

Specifically: Anyone who, like Trump, publicly makes fun of wearing a mask and at the same time recommends the injection of disinfectants, neither contributes to solving the real-life Covid problem nor to pacifying an angry society.

More fundamentally: Populism, which weakens institutions and rejects the advice of experts as an undue restriction of the omnipotence of the respective leadership figure, who relies on national solutions and seeks international conflicts, is the opposite of what will be necessary in the Green Swan era - namely pragmatism, international willingness to cooperate, strengthening supranational institutions.

Conservative in the conservative sense

Actually, these are times for moderate conservatives.

Conservatism, as it has shaped politics in Western countries for many decades, is decidedly non-ideological.

The bourgeois conservative tradition is problem-solving, looking for the balance between progress and skepticism about progress.

Unlike progress-euphoric liberals and socialists rooted in Marxism who exude the flair of the revolutionary, real conservatives insist on pragmatic gradualism: always looking for what is feasible, for compromise, for slowed progress.

That has a moderating and objective effect.

Conservatism, understood in this way, is primarily concerned with stabilizing conditions, pacifying societies, and preserving the integrity of institutions.

In many Western countries, conservative parties have been in government for most of the time since World War II.

For more than two thirds of the years since it was founded, the CDU Chancellor has been responsible for state affairs in the Federal Republic of Germany.

Sure, classic conservatism is drowsy.

It tends to become encrusted.

Those who primarily want to preserve what is may overlook the need for drastic changes that societies have to make from time to time.

Typically, phases of persistence alternate with phases of change.

Without the red-green reforms in social and then also in social and economic policy, Germany would not have come through the past decade and a half so well.

In the 1980s, it was the radical liberal reformers Margret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, both leaders of what were actually conservative parties, who helped Great Britain and the USA regain momentum after painful cuts.

After long years of stagnation in France, the liberal Emmanuel Macron has just attempted a similar series of reforms, but is facing considerable opposition.

Conservatives keep their hands off that.

Angela Merkel's persistent refusal to attempt any major project in her long term in office is typical of this policy approach - no major tax or pension reform, no expansion of the EU and the euro zone into a United States of Europe.

In the long run, the will to preserve is not enough.

But currently the uncertainty is so great and so extensive that the main thing is to keep the store together - in other words, to somehow provide stability.

In the context of the Covid crisis and a crumbling international order, we are constantly confronted with so many imponderables that a lot would have been achieved if we succeeded in preventing a slide into chaotic conditions.

Pragmatic conservatism can provide the political software for this.

Serious to the point of boredom

However, there are many conservative parties left by name only.

Trump and Johnson have turned their parties into populist movements.

The Gaullists have practically imploded in France, as has the Partido Popular in Spain.

There are also representatives of crisis-managing gradualism to the left of the center.

Joe Biden, the Democratic US presidential candidate, belongs in this category, as does Olaf Scholz, the SPD's candidate for chancellor.

Both are serious to the point of boredom - not a bad quality in these disturbing times.

But they have parties behind them, some of which want much more radical changes.

Who wins the upper hand in the end is open.

As I said, the US election will send out a global signal - one way or another.

Much is at stake.

Icon: The mirror

The main economic events of the week ahead

Monday Up Arrow Down Arrow

Munich -

German mood

- The Ifo Institute publishes its business climate index for October.

The corona pandemic, which flares up again, should put a damper on it.

Reporting season I

- business figures from SAP.

Tuesday Up Arrow Down Arrow

Reporting season II

- Financial figures from Banco Santander, Valeo, Vattenfall, Novartis, HSBC, BP, Microsoft, Eli Lilly, Merck & Co, Pfizer, Caterpillar, 3M.

Wednesday Up Arrow Down Arrow

Reporting season III

- business figures from Deutsche Börse, Deutsche Bank, BASF, Beiersdorf, Delivery Hero, DWS, Suez, PSA, Carrefour, Fiat Chrysler, GlaxoSmithKline, UPS, General Electric, Boeing, Mastercard, Ford, Visa, Ebay.

Thursday Up Arrow Down Arrow

Frankfurt -

even more action?

- The Governing Council meets and decides on the further course.

The question is whether the Euro-Bank will increase its Corona support package again - or at least give indications.

Nuremberg -

Rising uncertainty

- The Federal Employment Agency presents the labor market statistics for October.

How powerful is the wave of layoffs becoming?

Wiesbaden -

Price questions

- The Federal Statistical Office announces an initial estimate of the inflation rate in October 2020.

Washington -

The state of the US economy

- First figures on the development of economic performance in the third quarter of 2020. There are also new figures on the initial jobless claims. 

Tokyo -

Far East course

- The Japanese central bank decides how to proceed.

Reporting season IV

- business figures from Volkswagen, Fresenius, Fresenius Medical Care, MTU, Airbus, Symrise, Kuka, Drägerwerk, Kion, Telefonica, Sanofi, Saint-Gobain, Nokia, Repsol, Credit Suisse, Clariant, Spotify, Shell, Standard Chartered, Lloyds , Apple, Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon, Twitter, Conoco Phillips, AMD.

Friday Up Arrow Down Arrow

Wiesbaden -

Deutsche Realitäten

- The Federal Statistical Office publishes preliminary figures on the development of the gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2020.

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2020-10-25

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